图书标签: 统计 科普 数学 经济 Mathematics 钓愚提到 赫尔曼·黑塞 西方哲学
发表于2024-09-30
Standard Deviations pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with the letter “D” are more likely to die young? Or that Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? All of these “facts” have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics.
As Nobel Prize–winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, “If you torture data long enough, it will confess.” Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.
With the breakout success of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.
Gary Smith is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College in Claremont, California. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University and taught there as Assistant Professor for seven years. He has won two teaching awards and authored more than seventy academic papers, nine textbooks, and seven educational software programs. This is his first trade book.
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评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
评分一直不喜欢励志、how to(包括某些所谓管理学图书)、技术分析、特异功能,这本书说出了其所以然。
人类由于两种倾向而导致认知错误: 1容易被模式、解释模式的理论所引诱。 2总有寻找支持假设的证据而忽视或曲解与假设相反的证据的倾向。 纠正这两种倾向所引起的认知错误之方法: 1常识。不寻常的说法应该有压倒性的证据支持。 2新数据。在旧数据已经支持理论的时候,再用旧数...
评分首先想好你的观点:初中生都爱吃棒棒糖! 然后用数据证明你的观点。 不好!数据好像反对了我的观点。 那一定是选择数据的时间错误了。减一年。改为:初一到初二的初中生都爱吃棒棒糖! 还是不行。 那一定是选择数据的对象错误了,我的观点只针对女性。改为:初一到初二的女初中...
评分人类由于两种倾向而导致认知错误: 1容易被模式、解释模式的理论所引诱。 2总有寻找支持假设的证据而忽视或曲解与假设相反的证据的倾向。 纠正这两种倾向所引起的认知错误之方法: 1常识。不寻常的说法应该有压倒性的证据支持。 2新数据。在旧数据已经支持理论的时候,再用旧数...
评分科技发达、信息无处不在的今天,谣言同样无处不在,甚至侵占着我们的时间。要成为一篇阅读量超过10万+的谣言神文,有套路,无外乎抓住关键的两点——一是炮制一个和每个人息息相关的、骇人听闻且违背生活常识的标题,主要是利用人们在常识上的缺失或者是对于突发事件的恐慌情绪...
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Standard Deviations pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024