图书标签: 统计 预测 大数据 思维 数学 NateSilver 经济 行为经济学
发表于2024-05-14
The Signal and the Noise pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
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评分前大半部分引人入胜,最后几章稍稍力不从心,有种抓不牢的松散感。 非常有阅读性的一本书,推荐!
评分要正面解决问题 不逃避问题 所以患上数据毒...立刻找中文版看看 看看有没有接地气儿
评分pleasant to read; lots of good insights; at last but not the least, quite a few good recommendations for great book about investment and statistics.
评分Nate Silver
读了几页就感觉到了作者的思维方式和角度非同凡响,越读越觉得有兴趣。但是越读,越觉得食之无味。涉及到的方面特别多,但是没有一块是深入讲如何鉴别信号与噪声的。都是一些流于肤浅的方面。 个人建议作者可以抓住其中的一方面和一个领域,进行深入剖析和讲解即可成为一本特好...
评分“大数据时代”应该算得上新近的热词了,我们每个人都在讨论大数据、讨论云计算,但问题是,为什么网络的戾气还是这么重呢?《信号与噪声》给出的答案是,信息太多了。 作为反乌托邦小说,《美丽新世界》和《一九八四》一直被当做信息处理的两种相反的手段,前者是信息泛滥以至...
评分我看的是中文版,听到有人抱怨翻译问题(通病吧),于是找来电子档翻了翻,没细看,发现如下两点 1)每章的标题被译者更换了。 2)600多页的pdf,参考的文献,居然都有200+了。 还是顺道正题,谈谈对本书的看法。 全书没有看完,只细看了前几章,后面几章就翻翻看了,所以不一...
评分我看的是中文版,听到有人抱怨翻译问题(通病吧),于是找来电子档翻了翻,没细看,发现如下两点 1)每章的标题被译者更换了。 2)600多页的pdf,参考的文献,居然都有200+了。 还是顺道正题,谈谈对本书的看法。 全书没有看完,只细看了前几章,后面几章就翻翻看了,所以不一...
评分“大数据时代”应该算得上新近的热词了,我们每个人都在讨论大数据、讨论云计算,但问题是,为什么网络的戾气还是这么重呢?《信号与噪声》给出的答案是,信息太多了。 作为反乌托邦小说,《美丽新世界》和《一九八四》一直被当做信息处理的两种相反的手段,前者是信息泛滥以至...
The Signal and the Noise pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024