圖書標籤: 心理學 社會科學 社會學 思維 科普 常識 社交網絡 社科
发表于2024-05-18
Everything Is Obvious pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.
Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.
Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer.
"I knew it all along"的後見之明是最大的敵人。。。
評分Common Sense篇看完,其中核心點似乎在說明“常識”是人類理解世界的重要框架,但是常識在運用於解釋由大量社會成員的活動所造成的現象、事件時,具有很強的誤導性,這種誤導與人類對於簡單因果關係的嗜好,以及對微觀與宏觀的過渡過程不明有關。
評分標準的暢銷書風格,說的是馬後炮的故事,提齣一個並不新鮮的觀點——知行閤一。
評分隻看瞭首尾兩章
評分以作者攤子鋪這麼大的寫法來說寫的實在太淺瞭,有點可惜。推薦給在校大學生及同等知識水平的年輕人翻閱。
“在听说发生森林火灾时,我们并不会去想点燃这场大火的火星有什么特别之处。这种想法确实比较可笑。但是,当看到社会中发生特别之事时,我们却会立刻这样想:无论是谁引发了此事,他一定不是普通人。” 01 — 英文版是2012年出的。一些案例和思想在其他读物中见过了。 作者在...
評分读完一本书不写篇书评好像一句话没句号一样。 不过这是我不太想写的一本书。因为看完没有让我有那种豁然开朗或者被激励的那种激情,也可能与作者背景相关,邓肯 J 瓦茨是做互联网企业研究的,优势在于他掌握很多研究案例以及有机构和能力对案例进行数据收集与分析,这是这本书...
評分 評分Everything Is Obvious pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024