Everything Is Obvious

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Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also a past external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group. He is author of the book Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything is Obvious Once You Know the Answer.

出版者:Crown Business
作者:Duncan J. Watts
出品人:
页数:352
译者:
出版时间:2011-3-29
价格:USD 26.00
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9780385531689
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 心理学 
  • 社会科学 
  • 社会学 
  • 思维 
  • 科普 
  • 常识 
  • 社交网络 
  • 社科 
  •  
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Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?

If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.

Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

具体描述

读后感

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常识对于我们个人的生活,起到的作用无可替代。期中的因果思维、光环效应、关键影响人理论……都是基于我们个人的常识演绎或推导出来的。这些常识在现如今的复杂多变的系统中起到的作用却非常有限,而我们却有意无意的忽略了这点。 一、因果与相关性 当A在B之前发生,那么A就是...  

评分

常识对于我们个人的生活,起到的作用无可替代。期中的因果思维、光环效应、关键影响人理论……都是基于我们个人的常识演绎或推导出来的。这些常识在现如今的复杂多变的系统中起到的作用却非常有限,而我们却有意无意的忽略了这点。 一、因果与相关性 当A在B之前发生,那么A就是...  

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“在听说发生森林火灾时,我们并不会去想点燃这场大火的火星有什么特别之处。这种想法确实比较可笑。但是,当看到社会中发生特别之事时,我们却会立刻这样想:无论是谁引发了此事,他一定不是普通人。” 01 — 英文版是2012年出的。一些案例和思想在其他读物中见过了。 作者在...  

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读完一本书不写篇书评好像一句话没句号一样。 不过这是我不太想写的一本书。因为看完没有让我有那种豁然开朗或者被激励的那种激情,也可能与作者背景相关,邓肯 J 瓦茨是做互联网企业研究的,优势在于他掌握很多研究案例以及有机构和能力对案例进行数据收集与分析,这是这本书...  

用户评价

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初读起来有些自相矛盾的感觉,但到后面会发觉其实只是想表达social science的"不科学"现状.至于书里的各种推断,这就见仁见智了,"everything is obvious"嘛.

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an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing.

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文中把各种学科的一堆东西揉在一起定义的“常识”恐怕对具体的学科指导性有限,但对于大众读者来说完全抛弃常识也不太可行。具体举例的研究结论很广泛,如果之前没听说过的话可以收获一批杂学(。

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: B842.5/W349

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an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing.

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