图书标签: 决策 思维 心理学 英文原版 不确定性 认知精进 扑克 成长
发表于2024-04-29
Thinking in Bets pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
说的很有道理,而且也给了操作办法,好书!
评分道理咱都懂,但鸽子还是很大… 其实不少论点在其他地方都见过,尤其很多都在《思考,快与慢》中提及过。个人觉得可能比较独特有趣的两点:1. 简单地问一句“打个赌?”往往就能迫使自己更理性地分析各种可能性,帮助形成更全面的观点。2. 许多不利于探寻真理的思维定式,如自以为是、怨天尤人、幸灾乐祸,因为它们都会让自我感觉相对更良好,所以都难以改正;因此需要对应地在大脑中为相反想法建立正向反馈,比如夸奖自己“这种情况下我能不怨天尤人真难得”之类的,才能让有益的思维模式形成习惯。
评分终于看完了...... 用德扑的方式看待生活中的选择还挺有意思的
评分其实这书跟扑克毫无关系,就是讲如何在不确定性下做决策且评估自己的决策。有些独到之处,但整体一般。
评分Mostly
一 我们常常需要在不确定的情况下做出决定。Annie Duke有感而发,因为她真的是个赌徒——赌博这项活动显然有很坏的名声,以至于我们只有这个贬义的“赌徒”。在扑克牌桌上,你常常需要赌一把“手气”,看看你的赌运。我们凭直觉就知道这其中有很大的运气成分。你可以和赌神赌一...
评分这本书里最欣赏的莫过于对resulting(第三页把案例形容为“成王败寇”)的批判——所谓尽人事听天命,结果好的就说明人事尽到位了吗?不巧的是,大部分人的思维模式都是这样的,以至于整个世界通行的思维模式也成了这样的。 之前我看两本讲双升的书(《纵横四海》和《双升高手...
评分 评分Thinking in Bets pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024