图书标签: 统计 逻辑 方法论 计算机 因果 哲学 科普 AI
发表于2024-11-22
The Book of Why pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence
“Correlation is not causation.” This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality–the study of cause and effect–on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl’s work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
Judea Pearl is a professor of computer science at UCLA and winner of the 2011 Turing Award and the author of three classic technical books on causality. He lives in Los Angeles, California.
Dana Mackenzie is an award-winning science writer and the author of The Big Splat, or How Our Moon Came to Be. He lives in Santa Cruz, California.
每个人都是一部因果关系自动机。真要把人脑对因果的思维过程掰扯明白,还真是不容易。作者的因果模型,是把复杂问题简单化的经典例子了。
评分从公司图书馆借得此书,翻了前两章,结合得到上万维钢的讲解,大致了解了因果关系的重要性和对下一步强AI的启发,为什么要超越相关性去探求因果性。如作者在前言末尾讲到的:“Data do not understand cause and effects; human do. I hope that the new science of casual inference will enable us to better understand how we do it, because there is no better way to understand ourselves than by emulating ourselves. ”
评分科普,好看,推荐。(时隔好多年又重新学习学校里讲过的东西我的心情可以用沮丧来形容)(第一次读评分10的书,激动)(背景音pulp)
评分总算有本Judea Pearl的书是我能看懂的了,虽然是科普……读下来的感觉,Pearl的工作将人类直觉化的因果推理能力用数学形式表达了出来,使causal effect成为可以估计的变量。但因果模型如何提出,如何验证,似乎并没有涉及太多。如果强人工智能需要学会因果推理,提出模型应该比估算模型要难得多,也重要得多。
评分知其所以然。
rather than a new science. 1,作者并没有区分自然科学和社会以及行为科学,没有讨论这两个领域因果推断的异同,也没有上升到科学哲学的层面讨论因果推断本身。这些本身都不是问题。只是就内容来说,书中的science实际上指的是社会科学和行为科学,作者所说的“因果革命 (the ...
评分“20世纪50年代末60年代初,统计学家和医生就整个20世纪最引人注目的一个医学问题产生了意见冲突:吸烟会导致肺癌吗?在这场辩论过去了半个世纪之后的现在,我们认为答案是理所当然的。但在当时,这个问题完全处于迷雾之中。” 01 — 书比较厚,正文346页,注释26页。内容也相对硬核...
评分 评分The Book of Why pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024