The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024


The Black Swan

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[美] 納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布
Random House
2007-4-17
366
USD 30.00
Hardcover
9781400063512

圖書標籤: 金融  思維  思想  經濟  社會學  投資  經濟學  finance   


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发表于2024-11-22

The Black Swan epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書 下載 2024

The Black Swan epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書 下載 2024

The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024



圖書描述

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.

We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.

The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.

The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.

The Black Swan 下載 mobi epub pdf txt 電子書

著者簡介

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.


圖書目錄


The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載
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用戶評價

評分

圖書館沒座,遂抄過此書草草翻過。沒有看齣點在那裏。

評分

2008.6.18 看瞭幾章覺得整本書都是bullshit. 2009.12.12 重新看完。 廢話很多,且尖酸刻薄。他的想法其實很簡單,我也是基本同意他的觀點的。但是看完以後也不會跟彆人推薦此書。實在是旁門左道憤青之極。

評分

能看齣來作者極其聰明,但是那種深深的做trader時期遺留下來的傲慢態度為這本書大打摺扣。

評分

there are gems hidden in all this ranting, but it's mostly ranting instead of writing.

評分

雖然書中的觀點有些還行,但是論述的過程實在是又臭又長又雜亂無序。。。如果寫到50頁到100頁的一個長paper已然綽綽有餘,搞這麼個大部頭實在是。。。作者writing skills不敢恭維。。。

讀後感

評分

1,错过与遇见 “人类一思索,上帝就发笑。”自米兰•昆德拉赤裸裸地说破生活之真相起,我们就不得不在幻灭与重建的反复与轮回中深自徘徊。 较之《黑天鹅》,塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》似乎名气更大一些。在书店翻过《随机致富的傻瓜》一两眼,但没有买,也许是...  

評分

1,错过与遇见 “人类一思索,上帝就发笑。”自米兰•昆德拉赤裸裸地说破生活之真相起,我们就不得不在幻灭与重建的反复与轮回中深自徘徊。 较之《黑天鹅》,塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》似乎名气更大一些。在书店翻过《随机致富的傻瓜》一两眼,但没有买,也许是...  

評分

这本书确实很好,大观点不错,许多小观点也值得细细思考,看了十几篇评论,大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象,黑天鹅现象具有三个特点:不可预测性,影响重大,事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误,我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实,对事实的解...  

評分

本来也不该指望从畅销书中寻找什么惊为天人的洞识,我看此书的初衷也无非是学习一本畅销书该如何来撰写,以便于日后变成畅销书作家,大把赚银子来买书。如果只是为了这么一个不太高尚的目的,我想在看完之后还是有所体悟的,此书成功的关键就在于1、用一个形象化的手法表达你抖...  

評分

『I'd rather have the opinion of a trader than a mathematician.』 - 格林斯潘。 所谓黑天鹅,是指具备了以下三个特征的事件: - 不可预测,人们事前往往低估其发生的可能性 - 造成极大影响 - 事后回头再看,又觉得此事发生的有理 比如最近的金融危机,就是一次典型的...  

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