具体描述
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.
The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.
We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.
The Black Swan is a landmark book – itself a black swan.
The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a 28-page bibliography in addition to an index.
作者简介
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge, and he has led three high-profile careers around his ideas, as a man of letters, as a businessman-trader, and as a university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute. His work has been published in thirty-three languages.
目录信息
读后感
1、几乎社会生活中的一切都是由极少发生但是影响重大的剧变和飞越产生的。 2、你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义，因为许多黑天鹅事件正是不可预知的情况下发生和加剧的。 3、如何应对黑天鹅： ①不要预测：能够预测出来的意外就不是意外，对于不可预测的事情做出错误的预测...
评分这是amazon上对这本书原版的评论（http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1210482280&sr=8-1），得到了四星的推荐，其中文版的推出本来是件好事，但令人惊奇的是从4.8到4.18有红袖添乱、vivian、孤独的旺财...
评分『I'd rather have the opinion of a trader than a mathematician.』 - 格林斯潘。 所谓黑天鹅，是指具备了以下三个特征的事件： － 不可预测，人们事前往往低估其发生的可能性 － 造成极大影响 － 事后回头再看，又觉得此事发生的有理 比如最近的金融危机，就是一次典型的...
评分作为一个数理统计专业并从事金融计量研究工作的人,我认为有必要评价一下这本书.当然我的评论可能会有某些疏漏,请见谅.我假设读者已经研读过这本书.它大概讲了下面几个问题,而且都叙述得比较清楚. 我们为什么不能认识过去? 我们对未来的预测有多差? 我们为什么...
评分这本书确实很好，大观点不错，许多小观点也值得细细思考，看了十几篇评论，大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象，黑天鹅现象具有三个特点：不可预测性，影响重大，事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误，我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实，对事实的解...
用户评价
2008年。枯燥晦涩，不堪卒读，业已花费不少心力，犹豫再三，归为sunk cost，终弃之。
评分2007年就出版的一本书，为什么有人说国外的评价很高，但阅读起来并不那么赏心悦目？我告诉你就是翻译问题！强烈建议看原版好么！英文版看得津津有味，不得不说太棒了！薇儿偶然看过中文版几眼，那翻译岂是一个烂字了得！！书中里面充满了作者思辨式的哲学感悟和这种例子。确实是哲学、心理学、统计学和金融学的混合体。好内容太多，但若一定要用简洁的语言来总结的话，给我的感觉核心内容就是：“天机难测，淡定应对”。按照古人的说法就是，面对不确定，要“卒然临之而不惊，无故加之而不怒”。 人们总是因为未知而恐惧，Taleb说未来无法预测，所有的解释都是事后诸葛亮，那么我们该如何自处呢？在我看来，这本书最根本的观点即是端正心态，把时间和精力花到该花的地方，别枉费心机去预测未来，尤其是别把所有的身家性命押在上面。
评分行文结构实在有点乱，用语和句法也不是很易懂，艰难的啃了一半都还没搞清楚整本书的逻辑。总体来说就是预测都是愚蠢的，一切都是不可知的，做好万全准备，比作无聊的预测要有用。另外，书里居然花了一章的时间去“鄙视”和笔者意见不一致的各个大家，着实没有大家之风啊。
评分The book itself is interesting enough, but seriously Mister Taleb: we got your point, stop repeating yourself, over and over again!
评分Imagine someone with the erudition of Pico de la Mirandola, the skepticism of Montaigne, solid mathematical training, a restless globetrotter, polyglot, enjoyer of fine wines, specialist of financial derivatives, irrepressible reader, and irascible to the point of readily slapping a disciple.
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