圖書標籤: 政治 政治學 社會學 Politics 獨裁 政治哲學 英文原版 比較政治
发表于2024-12-23
The Dictator's Handbook pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
In this title, two renowned political scientists make the contrarian, research-based case that - regardless of any other factors political scientists or historians may find relevant - the calculations and actions of rulers are the driving force of all politics, and the primary goal of rulers is to maintain power as long as possible. In this clever and accessible book, Bueno de Mesquita and Smith introduce us to their perspective of the political world. They bare the logic of politics, starting from the simple premise that leaders pursue their own ends, and that populations either have, or more often don't have, the power to constrain them to a significant degree. The book is organized by a series interconnected questions, among them: Why do leaders who wreck their countries keep their jobs for so long? Why do autocracies have dismal economic policies? How are there so many suffering people in resource-rich lands? Why do 'natural disasters' disproportionately strike poor nations? Why do 'evil-doers' so often collect loads of foreign aid? Why are democracies so good at war? In answering these questions, the authors look at politics, the choices of public policies, and even decisions about war and peace as lying outside of conventional thinking about culture and history. They set aside ideas of civic virtue and psychopathology. Such notions simply are not central to understanding what leaders do and why they do it. Instead, Bueno de Mesquita and Smith see politicians as self-interested louts, just the sort of people you wouldn't want to have over for dinner, but without whom you might not have dinner at all. And from this perspective, they are able to answer some perplexing mysteries of politics, shed light on what we read in the newspapers every single day, and offer realistic ways of improving human governance.
About the Author
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the Julius Silver Professor of Politics and director of the Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy at New York University. He is the author of 16 books, including The Predictioneer’s Game.Alastair Smith is professor of politics at New York University. The recipient of three grants from the National Science Foundation and author of three books, he was chosen as the 2005 Karl Deutsch Award winner, given biennially to the best international relations scholar under the age of 40.
怎麼想都覺得軍隊那裏太難做因果識彆瞭,不過,那又如何?也許大傢都是猜到瞭結果猜不透開始
評分用一種簡單模型(interchangeable, influential, essential)去替代另一種簡單模型(民主vs獨裁),然後生搬硬套。廢話太多,車軲轆話來迴說,最後我就隻看看每章最後的總結。舉瞭不少例子但分析太淺且牽強。最有趣的是,中國和新加坡的成功被作者稱為“例外”,然後乾脆就不討論瞭!
評分腦洞太大,有點兒牽強。不過有些部分(比如援助問題)聽起來挺有道理的。 分好高啊。
評分一本本可以用十頁紙講完的書。Read the first few chapters and skim the rest. 這本書最大的問題就是業餘,而且花瞭太多時間去業餘。淺薄的另一麵就是很多細節沒有得到起碼的有用的解釋。比如說,當他所認為導緻腐敗的元素一直是固定的時候,那他就有必要解釋一下在不同時間不同地點為什麼checks on corruption産生瞭變化。
評分獲取控製權並保持住,政治的首要目的。抓住少數關鍵人物的支持並使得這些支持者處於忠誠,需要高超的手段控製實際結盟者的數目,人數小到隨時可以替換,大數到可以完全控製。而名義結盟者,越多越好。政治是少數人的遊戲,這個遊戲的風險和收益巨大,而博弈的結果並不會一定導嚮經濟效率高的均衡或是居民普惠的政策。政治人物首先迎閤的便是結盟者,而居民始終是最後一位,盡管名義上是第一位。善治依賴於大的權力聯盟,即長官不能通過贏取少數人的支持保持領導位置。
刘瑜女士将本书暗示为“民主颂”,完全同意。但她直接把最后一章“怎么办”的内容忽略了。我摘几段,大家就明白为什么了:(这里的“我们”指美国)“当某个外国的人民普遍反对我们的根本利益,我们获得想要的东西的最好办法就是让该国人民处于按美国人民意愿办事的独裁者的高...
評分你可以把这本书看成一个教程。 观察下来,有效。 有几个地方更需要注意: 1. 尽量观察那些存活了五十年以上的组织。 2. 这些组织,也符合本书的规则,但更高效,所以延续更久,矛盾解决更好。 3. 昙花一现式的组织,其实不需要太在意的。胡人无百年之国运,但满清也破了此例,...
評分 評分从9年前郭美美事件到本次武汉疫情再次把红十字推上风口浪尖。到了全网愤怒的地步,我们会好奇为何红十字多年以来死性不改?就在备受质疑后红会仍然没有给出实质性的回复和惩罚。 其实作为普通人,我们要明白当谈论政治和权利时,我们谈论的不是意识形态,国籍或者祖籍或者文化...
評分刘瑜女士将本书暗示为“民主颂”,完全同意。但她直接把最后一章“怎么办”的内容忽略了。我摘几段,大家就明白为什么了:(这里的“我们”指美国)“当某个外国的人民普遍反对我们的根本利益,我们获得想要的东西的最好办法就是让该国人民处于按美国人民意愿办事的独裁者的高...
The Dictator's Handbook pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024