Radical Uncertainty pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024


Radical Uncertainty

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John Kay
W. W. Norton & Company
2020-3-17
384
USD 26.70
Hardcover
9781324004776

圖書標籤: 不確定性  決策  英文  經濟學  管理   


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发表于2024-12-24

Radical Uncertainty epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書 下載 2024

Radical Uncertainty epub 下載 mobi 下載 pdf 下載 txt 電子書 下載 2024

Radical Uncertainty pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024



圖書描述

Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty.

Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no-one―not least Steve Jobs―knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package―what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?―demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.

The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Radical Uncertainty 下載 mobi epub pdf txt 電子書

著者簡介

John Kay is an economist and Fellow of St John’s College and Oxford University as well as the author of many books, including Other People’s Money and The British Tax System (with Mervyn King).

Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, is a professor at New York University and emeritus professor at the London School of Economics. He is the author of Radical Uncertainty and The End of Alchemy, among other books.


圖書目錄


Radical Uncertainty pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載
想要找書就要到 小哈圖書下載中心
立刻按 ctrl+D收藏本頁
你會得到大驚喜!!

用戶評價

評分

齣發點很好,話題也是我想學習的,作者也是大佬 但是寫得太囉嗦瞭,讀不下去. 長度應該可以減少一半以上?

評分

齣發點很好,話題也是我想學習的,作者也是大佬 但是寫得太囉嗦瞭,讀不下去. 長度應該可以減少一半以上?

評分

齣發點很好,話題也是我想學習的,作者也是大佬 但是寫得太囉嗦瞭,讀不下去. 長度應該可以減少一半以上?

評分

齣發點很好,話題也是我想學習的,作者也是大佬 但是寫得太囉嗦瞭,讀不下去. 長度應該可以減少一半以上?

評分

齣發點很好,話題也是我想學習的,作者也是大佬 但是寫得太囉嗦瞭,讀不下去. 長度應該可以減少一半以上?

讀後感

評分

本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...

評分

本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...

評分

本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...

評分

本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...

評分

本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...

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