图书标签: 不确定性 决策 英文 经济学 管理
发表于2024-12-26
Radical Uncertainty pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024
Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty.
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no-one―not least Steve Jobs―knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package―what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?―demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.
The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
John Kay is an economist and Fellow of St John’s College and Oxford University as well as the author of many books, including Other People’s Money and The British Tax System (with Mervyn King).
Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, is a professor at New York University and emeritus professor at the London School of Economics. He is the author of Radical Uncertainty and The End of Alchemy, among other books.
出发点很好,话题也是我想学习的,作者也是大佬 但是写得太啰嗦了,读不下去. 长度应该可以减少一半以上?
评分出发点很好,话题也是我想学习的,作者也是大佬 但是写得太啰嗦了,读不下去. 长度应该可以减少一半以上?
评分出发点很好,话题也是我想学习的,作者也是大佬 但是写得太啰嗦了,读不下去. 长度应该可以减少一半以上?
评分出发点很好,话题也是我想学习的,作者也是大佬 但是写得太啰嗦了,读不下去. 长度应该可以减少一半以上?
评分出发点很好,话题也是我想学习的,作者也是大佬 但是写得太啰嗦了,读不下去. 长度应该可以减少一半以上?
本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...
评分本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...
评分本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...
评分本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...
评分本书的两位作者属于英国经济政策制定的精英阶层。约翰•凯(John Kay)曾担任英国一些领先的学术、智库和咨询职位。默文•金(Mervyn King)曾在英国央行(Bank of England)度过漫长的职业生涯,最后担任10年行长,其间经历全球金融危机。 在第一次合著书籍40年后,他们再次联手...
Radical Uncertainty pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2024