圖書標籤: 金融 Finance 經濟 經濟學 IrrationalExuberate Economics Shiller CFA
发表于2025-01-10
Irrational Exuberance pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025
This first edition of this book was a broad study, drawing on a wide range of published research and historical evidence, of the enormous stock market boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. Although it took as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it placed it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also made concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. The book argued that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Part one of the book considered structural factors behind the boom. A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes was given. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, were described. Part Two discussed cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Three discussed psychological factors, psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior. Part Four discussed attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. Part Five presented policy options and actions that should be taken. The second edition, 2005, added an analysis of the real estate bubble as similar to the stock market bubble that preceded it, and warned that "Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession." Thus, the second edition of this book was among the first to warn of the global financial crisis that began with the subprime mortgage debacle in 2007
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非理性繁榮(第2版)
Robert J. Shiller is the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University. He is author of "The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century" (Princeton) and "Market Volatility and Macro Markets", which won the 1996 Paul A. Samuelson Award.
後半部分有很多long run short run price movement的討論 讓我想到自己問不同公司trader他們的decision making process 哎 還是exotic/macro比較有意思
評分後半部分有很多long run short run price movement的討論 讓我想到自己問不同公司trader他們的decision making process 哎 還是exotic/macro比較有意思
評分1. Psychological effects do play an important role in the stock market peaks (or troughs). Irrational exuberance does exist 2. Irrational exuberance cannot be eliminated. There are some possible solutions: more effective risk management by individuals, guidance and proper interest rate policy from monetary authorities and improved information flow.
評分1. Psychological effects do play an important role in the stock market peaks (or troughs). Irrational exuberance does exist 2. Irrational exuberance cannot be eliminated. There are some possible solutions: more effective risk management by individuals, guidance and proper interest rate policy from monetary authorities and improved information flow.
評分聽著席勒的Econ116,順便也看瞭看他2001年唱空故事、樓市的書,果然和聽他本人講課一個路數,喋喋絮絮的段子瞭麵講道理,而自己不顯示齣過多的感情,學者風範之餘有些《紐約客》式的冷幽默,。不過這本書不如《Animal Spirits》寫得好,太貼近“唱空市場”,雖然羅列數據、新聞、曆史,但不如前者對於市場中普通人的心理學、非理性總結、分析得那麼深刻。
下面是我曾经写的book report,感兴趣的朋友可以拿此书来看。 我简单说说这书, 作者对于美国房产经济做了一番研究,此书有详细的对于次贷以前类似房产经纪引发的经济问题的研究。很多facts.从此你看书美国如何房地产经济的发展轨迹。 此书对于权威毫不吝啬的批评,认为次贷一...
評分用了两天的时间读完了《非理性繁荣》。想起本书成书于20世纪末,我不得不去佩服美国的一些经济学家所保有的清醒和冷静。再看看中国发展时间并不长的金融之路,我想,这本书给出了我们对股市更加有益的解读。虽然基于的是美国的具体国情,但是机理的阐述部分还是具有普遍...
評分两年前读这本书的时候,正是2015年中国股市泡沫即将破裂的前夕(一个多月后泡沫演化成了救市的闹剧)。当时读的是第一版。这次读的是第二版,主要是多了房地产泡沫的内容。在众多待读书单中把这本书拿出来再重温一遍,实在是因为泡沫这个主题一直萦绕在脑海中无法消去,不知道自...
評分如果让我对我现在所学的金融学说点什么,我只想说学这个专业的学生都是在尝试让自己的理性战胜自己的非理性。 当教科书上告诉我们,亚当斯密爷爷说的,我们都是理性的经济人,我们像趋利避害的草履虫一样。可真的如此吗?希勒教授告诉我们,我们恶性的自大让人类成了非理性的...
評分读到庞氏骗局深有体会,自己又半山腰上买入,所有的理论工具都会,所有的知识都知道,却非理性的买入了了,在3200点,就是因为我去了趟证券公司开了创业板,体会到了人家都挣了两倍,然后还是两千万,太刺激了我,所以我忍了半天又进去了,自己这么样就动摇了,所以庞氏骗局太...
Irrational Exuberance pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2025