圖書標籤: 社會學 金融 思維 哲學 Finance 風險管理 英文原版 經濟
发表于2024-06-24
The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
*2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.
小概率的必然性
評分Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth-remember that you are a black swan.
評分有點意思...不過也就那樣
評分my only regret is to not have read years ago....idiosyncratically brilliant!
評分Idea好,但行文形散.In Extremistan world,vol不可靠因BS exist and their rarity lowers vol.應對負麵BS:keep a diary to prevent burnout from 2nd guessing of past actions,defensive redundancies,keep it small,use barbell.正麵BS:be an aggregate BS hunter (VC, publisher),max serendipity, invest in preparedness not predictability,trade duration for intensity in workout (?!)
1、几乎社会生活中的一切都是由极少发生但是影响重大的剧变和飞越产生的。 2、你不知道的事比你知道的事更有意义,因为许多黑天鹅事件正是不可预知的情况下发生和加剧的。 3、如何应对黑天鹅: ①不要预测:能够预测出来的意外就不是意外,对于不可预测的事情做出错误的预测...
評分『I'd rather have the opinion of a trader than a mathematician.』 - 格林斯潘。 所谓黑天鹅,是指具备了以下三个特征的事件: - 不可预测,人们事前往往低估其发生的可能性 - 造成极大影响 - 事后回头再看,又觉得此事发生的有理 比如最近的金融危机,就是一次典型的...
評分这本书确实很好,大观点不错,许多小观点也值得细细思考,看了十几篇评论,大都没有反映出这本书的精华。 1. 黑天鹅现象,黑天鹅现象具有三个特点:不可预测性,影响重大,事后可解释。 2. 叙述谬误,我们在编造理由或者强大一种逻辑关系的情况下观察一系列事实,对事实的解...
評分『历史是由一系列稀有事件推动的』。这乍一看让人联想起被人民群众口诛笔伐的所谓精英主义,但你要仔细研究人类发展的历史,就会不得不折服于作者的论证。 虽然上层建筑为了统治的需要,会通过教育向基层人民灌输什么『天才来源于人民』等诸如此类的概念作为安抚,但作者实际...
評分这是amazon上对这本书原版的评论(http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1210482280&sr=8-1),得到了四星的推荐,其中文版的推出本来是件好事,但令人惊奇的是从4.8到4.18有红袖添乱、vivian、孤独的旺财...
The Black Swan pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024