The Wisdom of Crowds

The Wisdom of Crowds pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載2025

詹姆斯•索羅維基(James Surowiecki)

《紐約客》雜誌特約撰稿人。他的文章見諸很多齣版物,包括《紐約時報》《華爾街日報》《藝術論壇報》《連綫》雜誌和《候選人名單》雜誌。索羅維基最初在《紐約客》雜誌的“金融專版”闡述瞭群體智慧的思想,迴答瞭美國社會長期以來對群體智慧和團隊決策能力的質疑。

出版者:BETASCRIPT PUBLISHING
作者:James Surowiecki
出品人:
頁數:98
译者:
出版時間:2005-8-16
價格:USD 15.00
裝幀:Paperback
isbn號碼:9786130456672
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While our culture generally trusts experts and distrusts the wisdom of the masses, New Yorker business columnist Surowiecki argues that "under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them." To support this almost counterintuitive proposition, Surowiecki explores problems involving cognition (we're all trying to identify a correct answer), coordination (we need to synchronize our individual activities with others) and cooperation (we have to act together despite our self-interest). His rubric, then, covers a range of problems, including driving in traffic, competing on TV game shows, maximizing stock market performance, voting for political candidates, navigating busy sidewalks, tracking SARS and designing Internet search engines like Google. If four basic conditions are met, a crowd's "collective intelligence" will produce better outcomes than a small group of experts, Surowiecki says, even if members of the crowd don't know all the facts or choose, individually, to act irrationally. "Wise crowds" need (1) diversity of opinion; (2) independence of members from one another; (3) decentralization; and (4) a good method for aggregating opinions. The diversity brings in different information; independence keeps people from being swayed by a single opinion leader; people's errors balance each other out; and including all opinions guarantees that the results are "smarter" than if a single expert had been in charge. Surowiecki's style is pleasantly informal, a tactical disguise for what might otherwise be rather dense material. He offers a great introduction to applied behavioral economics and game theory.

Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

具體描述

讀後感

評分

評分

群众的意见并不是统一的时候最准确,而恰恰是融合很多不同意见的时候,准确性超过任何个别专家的意见。 -------------------------------------- 作者区分了群众的力量可能解决的3种问题: cognition problem比如猜测股市价格,牛的重量等 coordination problem 比如协调开车,...  

評分

作者举了很多例子证明了,在适当的条件下,群体的智慧是出色的(猜糖豆、电子市场),也举了很多反例,论述了在一些环境中,群体又是非常愚蠢,甚至疯狂的(泡沫、暴民)。在讨论群体的智慧时,本书把问题对象分为三类:认知问题、协调问题与合作问题。 在解决认知问题时,...  

評分

不知道是翻译的问题,还是作者的写作方法比较学术。读起来有点不流畅,不过里面的很多例子是非常好的,至于作者的结论总结之类基本没怎么看  

評分

群体决策究竟智慧还是愚蠢?集权究竟高效还是低效?两者如何结合,并如何决定两种模式在什么情况下使用。这是群体心理学的诸多著述试图解决和研究的问题。 最具有耸动性的言论来自于勒庞,那就是群体的愚蠢,即乌合之众。乌合之众的形成是实实在在的现象,成因乃在于其组织的封...  

用戶評價

评分

有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。

评分

有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。

评分

有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。

评分

有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。

评分

有種穿越時光看過去的人如何群情激昂的感覺。。。。

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