图书标签: Statistics  Causality  科普  科教文  因果推断  rstats   

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I was first attracted to this book by the opening example of Sally Clark. But when I read through, I struggled to deal with so many examples, not each one being well interpreted by the author... Anyway, here are the main takeaways from the book: 1) Causality and correlation are not synonymous; 2) Think critically about bias; 3) Time matters.

I was first attracted to this book by the opening example of Sally Clark. But when I read through, I struggled to deal with so many examples, not each one being well interpreted by the author... Anyway, here are the main takeaways from the book: 1) Causality and correlation are not synonymous; 2) Think critically about bias; 3) Time matters.

这本书主攻因果关系构建的主题，使用了很多例子和实证来介绍相关的影响因素。虽然市面上已经有一些质量较佳的书其实也论述同类型问题，比如超级预测术和随机概率的本质作用等，但是侧重均不同，需要相互补充进行全面了解。此书的章节分别讨论心理学因素、相关性、时间、非实验观察、计算、实验、解释和行动指南，其中只有最后这一章讲的是怎么办，其它都是解释是什么和为什么的问题，很无奈但的确实际能做的很少。作者的观点是因果关系存在但不是普通想象中那么多，尤其当它处于极其复杂的系统中时，例如社会科学。人们总是倾向于各种因果的bias，且现有的数学工具也没有办法完美解决，比如多重假设检验的统计处理方法永远是以牺牲两类错误中的一方来提高另一方的效力，永远不是完美的。这些对于科研工作者可能更有意义，因为科研就是探索因果关系。

I was first attracted to this book by the opening example of Sally Clark. But when I read through, I struggled to deal with so many examples, not each one being well interpreted by the author... Anyway, here are the main takeaways from the book: 1) Causality and correlation are not synonymous; 2) Think critically about bias; 3) Time matters.

I was first attracted to this book by the opening example of Sally Clark. But when I read through, I struggled to deal with so many examples, not each one being well interpreted by the author... Anyway, here are the main takeaways from the book: 1) Causality and correlation are not synonymous; 2) Think critically about bias; 3) Time matters.

用了两周时间读完了克莱因伯格教授的《别拿相关当因果：因果关系简易入门》，用这篇文章先对因果关系推理过程中会遇到的疑惑进行梳理，尤其是相关关系与因果关系的联系和区别。 我们为什么要寻找原因？ 因果关系的重要性毋庸置疑。人们总是认为，一件事情的发生是有原因的，否...  

注水严重， 干货不多……甚至没有，都是概率和统计里面的内容； 现在大部分流行书作者都这套路，弄好一个框架，拼命注水成一本书；后面重要的是出版渠道和运营，简而言之就是卖出去、卖得好…… 而书本是要传递知识、理念、文明、逻辑……等一切人类的文化，在注水严重&书...

用了两周时间读完了克莱因伯格教授的《别拿相关当因果：因果关系简易入门》，用这篇文章先对因果关系推理过程中会遇到的疑惑进行梳理，尤其是相关关系与因果关系的联系和区别。 我们为什么要寻找原因？ 因果关系的重要性毋庸置疑。人们总是认为，一件事情的发生是有原因的，否...