圖書標籤: 金融 Alan_Greenspan 經濟 傳記 經濟史 economics Greenspan Finance&Economics
发表于2024-07-07
The Map and the Territory pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?
To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.
The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't. The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to our competition with China to natural disasters in an age of global warming.
No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.
Alan Greenspan was born in 1926 and reared in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York City. After studying the clarinet at Juilliard and working as a professional musician, he earned his B.A., M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from New York University. In 1954, he cofounded the economic consulting firm Townsend-Greenspan & Co. From 1974 to 1977, he served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Gerald Ford. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan appointed him chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held until his retirement in 2006.
kinda dry, nothing innovative yet
評分kinda dry, nothing innovative yet
評分對於我這樣的經濟學layman來說這本書的各章節講的主題都很大,很科普。當然還是很多人由於不喜歡Greenspan本人而不喜歡本書。
評分一個當年的頭牌對妓院及其繼任者作齣的深刻剖析和控訴。或者說是一個退休老乾部說瞭些人話真話。隻是不明白這書的標題和內容啥關係。
評分kinda dry, nothing innovative yet
一提到格林斯潘,我们都知道他曾长期担任美联储主席。美联储全称为美国联邦储备系统(Federal Reserve System),在美国的政经界起着举足轻重的作用,它在美国履行着美国的中央银行的职责。这个机构在美国以“独立”和“制衡”著称。这个机构的七名理事(包括主席、副主席...
評分还记得我最初了解股票这个玩意儿的时候,IT技术男的特点让我一下子就痴迷于各种技术型分析,沉溺于各种金叉的加权曲线与精妙的算法中,甚至自己写算法来验证走势,当发现算法的涨跌提示与股票历史趋势的大多数拐点重合时,我不禁欢呼雀跃,自以为看了一些书的我一瞬间就成为了...
評分如果没有次贷危机,格林斯潘的职业生涯可谓辉煌无比,四朝元老(里根、老布什、克林顿、小布什),五任美联储主席,在美国历史上史无前例。然而,06年卸任,08年就是次贷危机,想撇清关系,是完全不可能的。所以本书序言里,老潘委婉地说,几乎所有经济学家都没能预测到这次危...
評分一提到格林斯潘,我们都知道他曾长期担任美联储主席。美联储全称为美国联邦储备系统(Federal Reserve System),在美国的政经界起着举足轻重的作用,它在美国履行着美国的中央银行的职责。这个机构在美国以“独立”和“制衡”著称。这个机构的七名理事(包括主席、副主席...
評分最近特别巧合,我阅读的几本书籍都是围绕预测这个问题进行展开,有关于金融和国际政治格局的近期和远期预测,还有前美联储主席格林斯潘先生在《动荡的世界》一书中关于08年金融危机预测失误案例的研究与反思。与之前几本书作者的学者身份不同,格林斯潘不仅仅是一位经济学家,...
The Map and the Territory pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024