Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

Introduction to Bayesian Statistics pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 在線閱讀 2026

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出版者:Wiley
作者:William M. Bolstad
出品人:
頁數:624
译者:
出版時間:2016-10-3
價格:USD 140.00
裝幀:Hardcover
isbn號碼:9781118091562
叢書系列:
圖書標籤:
  • 貝葉斯
  • Statistics
  • 貝葉斯統計
  • 統計學
  • 概率論
  • 機器學習
  • 數據分析
  • 統計推斷
  • 模型選擇
  • R語言
  • Python
  • 科學計算
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具體描述

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features:

Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website

Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.

《概率的藝術:貝葉斯思維的入門指南》 這本書並非探討貝葉斯統計學的具體應用或理論細節,而是旨在揭示一種全新的認識世界、處理不確定性以及進行決策的思維方式——貝葉斯思維。我們每個人在日常生活中都在不自覺地運用著這種思維,無論是推測朋友的意圖,還是評估一項新投資的風險。本書的目標,便是將這種潛藏的智慧提煉齣來,使其更加清晰、係統,並賦予你更強大的分析工具。 核心理念:從固定認知到動態更新 傳統的統計學往往基於“頻率論”的視角,認為概率是事件發生的長期頻率。而貝葉斯思維則提供瞭一個截然不同的框架:我們將概率視為一種“信念”或“信心”的度量,這種度量是可以根據新的證據進行更新的。想象一下,你最初對某件事情有一個初步的看法(先驗信念)。當有新的信息齣現時,你不會固執己見,而是會根據新信息來調整你原來的看法,形成一個更新後的認識(後驗信念)。這個過程是持續的、動態的,允許我們不斷逼近真相,即便在信息不完整的情況下也能做齣更明智的判斷。 本書將帶你領略: 從直覺到理性的蛻變: 我們將從日常生活中生動的例子齣發,揭示貝葉斯思維的直觀性。通過一係列引人入勝的案例,你會發現自己早已是貝葉斯思維的實踐者。本書將幫助你識彆並命名這些思維模式,從而讓你能夠有意識地運用它們。 不確定性是常態,擁抱它: 在這個瞬息萬變的時代,完美的信息幾乎不存在。貝葉斯思維教會我們如何優雅地處理不確定性,而不是被它壓倒。我們將探討如何量化我們的不確定性,以及如何隨著新證據的齣現而逐步降低這種不確定性。這不僅僅是數學上的操作,更是一種心智上的成熟。 證據的力量: 新的證據是如何改變我們的看法的?本書將深入淺齣地解釋“似然性”的概念,即在不同假設下觀察到現有證據的可能性。通過權衡不同假設的似然性,我們可以有效地評估證據對於修正我們信念的貢獻度。你將學會如何審視證據,並讓證據成為你決策的有力支撐。 決策的智慧: 貝葉斯思維不僅僅是一種認識論,更是一種實踐論。在信息不確定、風險並存的情況下,如何做齣最優決策?我們將探討如何將貝葉斯更新與決策理論相結閤,幫助你在模糊的未來中找到最穩健的路徑。無論是個人選擇還是商業策略,這種思維都能提供更清晰的指導。 打破認知的局限: 許多時候,我們的決策受到認知偏見的影響。貝葉斯思維提供瞭一個強大的框架來識彆和糾正這些偏見。通過係統地評估證據和更新信念,我們可以避免陷入“確認偏誤”等陷阱,做齣更加客觀和理性的判斷。 超越預測,走嚮理解: 預測固然重要,但更深層次的理解則能帶來長遠的價值。貝葉斯思維幫助我們理解事物發生的內在機製,而不僅僅是描述錶麵現象。你將學會如何從數據中挖掘齣更深層的因果關係和規律,從而更好地應對未來的挑戰。 本書適閤誰? 如果你是一位對認識世界充滿好奇的讀者,希望在復雜的信息環境中保持清醒的頭腦;如果你是一位渴望提升決策能力的從業者,無論你身處何種行業;如果你是一位對邏輯和推理感興趣的學習者,想要掌握一種強大的分析工具,那麼這本書將為你打開一扇新的大門。 為什麼是“概率的藝術”? 本書並非枯燥的數學教材,而是將貝葉斯思維的探索比作一門藝術。它需要敏銳的觀察力,精妙的推理能力,以及對不確定性的深刻理解。我們將用充滿啓發性的語言和引人入勝的案例,讓你在享受閱讀的同時,潛移默化地掌握這門“概率的藝術”。 準備好,迎接一場思維的革命。 本書將帶領你踏上一段發人深省的旅程,去理解我們如何從有限的信息中獲得無限的洞察。你將不再僅僅是被動地接受信息,而是能夠主動地去質疑、去分析、去構建。讓我們一起,用貝葉斯思維的眼光,重新審視這個充滿變數的世界。

作者簡介

From the Back Cover

"...this edition is useful and effective in teaching Bayesian inference at both elementary and intermediate levels. It is a well-written book on elementary Bayesian inference, and the material is easily accessible. It is both concise and timely, and provides a good collection of overviews and reviews of important tools used in Bayesian statistical methods." There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features: Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.

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About the Author

WILLIAM M. BOLSTAD, PhD, is a retired Senior Lecturer in the Department of Statistics at The University of Waikato, New Zealand. Dr. Bolstad's research interests include Bayesian statistics, MCMC methods, recursive estimation techniques, multiprocess dynamic time series models, and forecasting. He is author of Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics, also published by Wiley. JAMES M. CURRAN is a Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at the University of Auckland, New Zealand. Professor Curran’s research interests include the statistical interpretation of forensic evidence, statistical computing, experimental design, and Bayesian statistics. He is the author of two other books including Introduction to Data Analysis with R for Forensic Scientists, published by Taylor and Francis through its CRC brand.

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目錄資訊

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用戶評價

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我必須指齣,這本書在案例分析方麵的選擇極其齣色,充分體現瞭其應用導嚮的特質。很多統計教材的案例往往局限於教科書式的、略顯陳舊的例子,但這本書似乎更關注當代科學研究的前沿問題。無論是生物信息學中的基因調控網絡推斷,還是金融領域中的風險價值評估,那些復雜的、真實世界的數據集被巧妙地整閤到教學流程中。更重要的是,作者不僅展示瞭如何應用模型,更深入探討瞭模型選擇和模型診斷的重要性。他們會引導讀者思考:“這個模型真的適閤我們正在研究的問題嗎?”以及“我們如何知道MCMC采樣齣來的結果是可信的?”這種批判性思維的培養,遠比單純掌握公式推導來得寶貴。它教會我,統計學不是一個封閉的工具箱,而是一個需要持續質疑和改進的動態過程。

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這本書的封麵設計簡潔而富有力量感,那種深邃的藍色調仿佛能將人帶入一個充滿數學美感的知識海洋。初次翻開時,我立刻被其清晰的章節劃分和循序漸進的講解方式所吸引。作者在構建理論框架時,似乎非常注重讀者的接受過程,每一個新的概念都不是憑空齣現的,而是緊密地建立在前一個知識點之上。舉例來說,對於概率分布的引入,它不像某些教科書那樣直接堆砌復雜的數學公式,而是通過一係列貼近現實生活的小故事或情景模擬,讓讀者在不知不覺中理解瞭貝葉斯思想的精髓所在——即如何根據新信息更新我們原有的信念。這種教學方法極大地降低瞭初學者的畏難情緒,讓人感覺學習統計學並非遙不可及的學術任務,而更像是一場有趣的邏輯推理遊戲。尤其是對於那些對傳統頻率學派統計學感到睏惑的人來說,這本書提供瞭一個全新的、更具直覺性的視角來審視數據和不確定性。

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這本書的排版和裝幀質量也值得稱贊,這是閱讀體驗中不容忽視的一部分。清晰的字體選擇、恰到好處的行間距,使得長時間的閱讀也不會産生強烈的視覺疲勞。圖錶的製作更是精良,那些用來闡釋後驗分布、模型對比或收斂診斷的圖形,不僅信息量大,而且設計美觀、一目瞭然。我很少遇到一本數學類書籍能在保持專業性的同時,還能如此注重視覺的友好性。特彆是那些推導過程中的數學符號,它們被放置在頁麵的黃金分割點上,避免瞭擁擠和混亂,保證瞭閱讀的節奏感。這種對細節的關注,無疑反映瞭作者和齣版方對讀者體驗的尊重,使得學習麯綫變得更加平滑和愉悅。

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這本書的論述風格可謂是獨樹一幟,它兼具瞭嚴謹的學術深度和令人愉悅的敘事流暢性。我特彆欣賞作者在處理復雜數學推導時所展現齣的耐心和細膩。他們沒有簡單地跳過那些關鍵的證明步驟,而是像一位經驗豐富的導師那樣,耐心地拆解每一個數學操作背後的直覺含義。例如,在講解馬爾可夫鏈濛特卡洛(MCMC)方法時,書中沒有直接給齣復雜的收斂性定理,而是通過生動的比喻,比如“迷路的小探險傢尋找寶藏”的場景,將復雜的采樣過程可視化。這使得即便是對計算統計不太熟悉的讀者,也能抓住其核心思想——即如何有效地探索高維參數空間。這種對教學藝術的極緻追求,使得這本書不僅僅是一本參考手冊,更像是一本可以陪伴學習者成長的良師益友。讀完特定章節後,常常會有一種豁然開朗的感覺,仿佛心中的迷霧被輕輕撥開,留下瞭清晰的認知路徑。

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從一個更宏觀的角度來看,這本書成功地將貝葉斯方法論的哲學基礎與其實際操作技巧完美地融閤在一起。它不僅僅是教會你如何“計算”貝葉斯估計,更深刻地探討瞭“為什麼”要選擇貝葉斯框架。作者對主觀概率和客觀概率之間微妙關係的闡述,對先驗信息在決策製定中的作用的探討,都極大地拓寬瞭我的思維邊界。讀完此書,我感覺自己不僅僅是掌握瞭一套新的統計工具,更像是獲得瞭一種看待世界和處理不確定性的全新世界觀。它鼓勵讀者擁抱不確定性,並將其視為信息的一部分,而非需要被消除的噪音。對於任何希望深入理解現代數據科學和推斷性統計學核心思想的人來說,這本書提供瞭一個堅實、全麵且富有洞察力的起點。

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