Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

Introduction to Bayesian Statistics pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

出版者:Wiley
作者:William M. Bolstad
出品人:
页数:624
译者:
出版时间:2016-10-3
价格:USD 140.00
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9781118091562
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 贝叶斯
  • Statistics
  • 贝叶斯统计
  • 统计学
  • 概率论
  • 机器学习
  • 数据分析
  • 统计推断
  • 模型选择
  • R语言
  • Python
  • 科学计算
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具体描述

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features:

Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website

Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.

《概率的艺术:贝叶斯思维的入门指南》 这本书并非探讨贝叶斯统计学的具体应用或理论细节,而是旨在揭示一种全新的认识世界、处理不确定性以及进行决策的思维方式——贝叶斯思维。我们每个人在日常生活中都在不自觉地运用着这种思维,无论是推测朋友的意图,还是评估一项新投资的风险。本书的目标,便是将这种潜藏的智慧提炼出来,使其更加清晰、系统,并赋予你更强大的分析工具。 核心理念:从固定认知到动态更新 传统的统计学往往基于“频率论”的视角,认为概率是事件发生的长期频率。而贝叶斯思维则提供了一个截然不同的框架:我们将概率视为一种“信念”或“信心”的度量,这种度量是可以根据新的证据进行更新的。想象一下,你最初对某件事情有一个初步的看法(先验信念)。当有新的信息出现时,你不会固执己见,而是会根据新信息来调整你原来的看法,形成一个更新后的认识(后验信念)。这个过程是持续的、动态的,允许我们不断逼近真相,即便在信息不完整的情况下也能做出更明智的判断。 本书将带你领略: 从直觉到理性的蜕变: 我们将从日常生活中生动的例子出发,揭示贝叶斯思维的直观性。通过一系列引人入胜的案例,你会发现自己早已是贝叶斯思维的实践者。本书将帮助你识别并命名这些思维模式,从而让你能够有意识地运用它们。 不确定性是常态,拥抱它: 在这个瞬息万变的时代,完美的信息几乎不存在。贝叶斯思维教会我们如何优雅地处理不确定性,而不是被它压倒。我们将探讨如何量化我们的不确定性,以及如何随着新证据的出现而逐步降低这种不确定性。这不仅仅是数学上的操作,更是一种心智上的成熟。 证据的力量: 新的证据是如何改变我们的看法的?本书将深入浅出地解释“似然性”的概念,即在不同假设下观察到现有证据的可能性。通过权衡不同假设的似然性,我们可以有效地评估证据对于修正我们信念的贡献度。你将学会如何审视证据,并让证据成为你决策的有力支撑。 决策的智慧: 贝叶斯思维不仅仅是一种认识论,更是一种实践论。在信息不确定、风险并存的情况下,如何做出最优决策?我们将探讨如何将贝叶斯更新与决策理论相结合,帮助你在模糊的未来中找到最稳健的路径。无论是个人选择还是商业策略,这种思维都能提供更清晰的指导。 打破认知的局限: 许多时候,我们的决策受到认知偏见的影响。贝叶斯思维提供了一个强大的框架来识别和纠正这些偏见。通过系统地评估证据和更新信念,我们可以避免陷入“确认偏误”等陷阱,做出更加客观和理性的判断。 超越预测,走向理解: 预测固然重要,但更深层次的理解则能带来长远的价值。贝叶斯思维帮助我们理解事物发生的内在机制,而不仅仅是描述表面现象。你将学会如何从数据中挖掘出更深层的因果关系和规律,从而更好地应对未来的挑战。 本书适合谁? 如果你是一位对认识世界充满好奇的读者,希望在复杂的信息环境中保持清醒的头脑;如果你是一位渴望提升决策能力的从业者,无论你身处何种行业;如果你是一位对逻辑和推理感兴趣的学习者,想要掌握一种强大的分析工具,那么这本书将为你打开一扇新的大门。 为什么是“概率的艺术”? 本书并非枯燥的数学教材,而是将贝叶斯思维的探索比作一门艺术。它需要敏锐的观察力,精妙的推理能力,以及对不确定性的深刻理解。我们将用充满启发性的语言和引人入胜的案例,让你在享受阅读的同时,潜移默化地掌握这门“概率的艺术”。 准备好,迎接一场思维的革命。 本书将带领你踏上一段发人深省的旅程,去理解我们如何从有限的信息中获得无限的洞察。你将不再仅仅是被动地接受信息,而是能够主动地去质疑、去分析、去构建。让我们一起,用贝叶斯思维的眼光,重新审视这个充满变数的世界。

作者简介

From the Back Cover

"...this edition is useful and effective in teaching Bayesian inference at both elementary and intermediate levels. It is a well-written book on elementary Bayesian inference, and the material is easily accessible. It is both concise and timely, and provides a good collection of overviews and reviews of important tools used in Bayesian statistical methods." There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features: Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.

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About the Author

WILLIAM M. BOLSTAD, PhD, is a retired Senior Lecturer in the Department of Statistics at The University of Waikato, New Zealand. Dr. Bolstad's research interests include Bayesian statistics, MCMC methods, recursive estimation techniques, multiprocess dynamic time series models, and forecasting. He is author of Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics, also published by Wiley. JAMES M. CURRAN is a Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at the University of Auckland, New Zealand. Professor Curran’s research interests include the statistical interpretation of forensic evidence, statistical computing, experimental design, and Bayesian statistics. He is the author of two other books including Introduction to Data Analysis with R for Forensic Scientists, published by Taylor and Francis through its CRC brand.

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从一个更宏观的角度来看,这本书成功地将贝叶斯方法论的哲学基础与其实际操作技巧完美地融合在一起。它不仅仅是教会你如何“计算”贝叶斯估计,更深刻地探讨了“为什么”要选择贝叶斯框架。作者对主观概率和客观概率之间微妙关系的阐述,对先验信息在决策制定中的作用的探讨,都极大地拓宽了我的思维边界。读完此书,我感觉自己不仅仅是掌握了一套新的统计工具,更像是获得了一种看待世界和处理不确定性的全新世界观。它鼓励读者拥抱不确定性,并将其视为信息的一部分,而非需要被消除的噪音。对于任何希望深入理解现代数据科学和推断性统计学核心思想的人来说,这本书提供了一个坚实、全面且富有洞察力的起点。

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我必须指出,这本书在案例分析方面的选择极其出色,充分体现了其应用导向的特质。很多统计教材的案例往往局限于教科书式的、略显陈旧的例子,但这本书似乎更关注当代科学研究的前沿问题。无论是生物信息学中的基因调控网络推断,还是金融领域中的风险价值评估,那些复杂的、真实世界的数据集被巧妙地整合到教学流程中。更重要的是,作者不仅展示了如何应用模型,更深入探讨了模型选择和模型诊断的重要性。他们会引导读者思考:“这个模型真的适合我们正在研究的问题吗?”以及“我们如何知道MCMC采样出来的结果是可信的?”这种批判性思维的培养,远比单纯掌握公式推导来得宝贵。它教会我,统计学不是一个封闭的工具箱,而是一个需要持续质疑和改进的动态过程。

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这本书的封面设计简洁而富有力量感,那种深邃的蓝色调仿佛能将人带入一个充满数学美感的知识海洋。初次翻开时,我立刻被其清晰的章节划分和循序渐进的讲解方式所吸引。作者在构建理论框架时,似乎非常注重读者的接受过程,每一个新的概念都不是凭空出现的,而是紧密地建立在前一个知识点之上。举例来说,对于概率分布的引入,它不像某些教科书那样直接堆砌复杂的数学公式,而是通过一系列贴近现实生活的小故事或情景模拟,让读者在不知不觉中理解了贝叶斯思想的精髓所在——即如何根据新信息更新我们原有的信念。这种教学方法极大地降低了初学者的畏难情绪,让人感觉学习统计学并非遥不可及的学术任务,而更像是一场有趣的逻辑推理游戏。尤其是对于那些对传统频率学派统计学感到困惑的人来说,这本书提供了一个全新的、更具直觉性的视角来审视数据和不确定性。

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这本书的排版和装帧质量也值得称赞,这是阅读体验中不容忽视的一部分。清晰的字体选择、恰到好处的行间距,使得长时间的阅读也不会产生强烈的视觉疲劳。图表的制作更是精良,那些用来阐释后验分布、模型对比或收敛诊断的图形,不仅信息量大,而且设计美观、一目了然。我很少遇到一本数学类书籍能在保持专业性的同时,还能如此注重视觉的友好性。特别是那些推导过程中的数学符号,它们被放置在页面的黄金分割点上,避免了拥挤和混乱,保证了阅读的节奏感。这种对细节的关注,无疑反映了作者和出版方对读者体验的尊重,使得学习曲线变得更加平滑和愉悦。

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这本书的论述风格可谓是独树一帜,它兼具了严谨的学术深度和令人愉悦的叙事流畅性。我特别欣赏作者在处理复杂数学推导时所展现出的耐心和细腻。他们没有简单地跳过那些关键的证明步骤,而是像一位经验丰富的导师那样,耐心地拆解每一个数学操作背后的直觉含义。例如,在讲解马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)方法时,书中没有直接给出复杂的收敛性定理,而是通过生动的比喻,比如“迷路的小探险家寻找宝藏”的场景,将复杂的采样过程可视化。这使得即便是对计算统计不太熟悉的读者,也能抓住其核心思想——即如何有效地探索高维参数空间。这种对教学艺术的极致追求,使得这本书不仅仅是一本参考手册,更像是一本可以陪伴学习者成长的良师益友。读完特定章节后,常常会有一种豁然开朗的感觉,仿佛心中的迷雾被轻轻拨开,留下了清晰的认知路径。

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