具体描述
内容提要
本书是管理专业高年级本科生、研究生、
工商管理硕士（MBA）层次“商务调研”课程
的标准题材。它为管理者在复杂的商务环境和
激烈的商务竞争中成功地进行商务调研，以便
形成科学决策，提供了一个清晰的理论框架和
全面的实务指南。
好的，以下是一本图书的详细简介，不涉及“企业决策研究：第四版：英文”的内容： 《全球供应链的韧性与重塑：危机时代的战略选择》 作者： 艾米莉亚·范德比尔特 (Amelia Vanderbilt) 出版社： 环球商业出版集团 (Global Business Press) 出版日期： 2023年秋季 页数： 680页 ISBN： 978-1-56789-012-3 --- 内容简介 在全球化进程遭遇前所未有的地缘政治摩擦、气候变化冲击以及突发公共卫生事件的“黑天鹅”时刻，传统上以效率和成本最小化为核心驱动力的全球供应链体系正面临结构性的瓦解与重塑。本书《全球供应链的韧性与重塑：危机时代的战略选择》并非对既有供应链理论的简单回顾，而是一部深刻洞察当代商业环境复杂性、为企业高层管理者和政策制定者提供实战性决策框架的重量级著作。 作者艾米莉亚·范德比尔特，一位在麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院深耕供应链风险管理领域逾二十年的资深学者，结合她近年来参与跨国公司供应链危机应对和政府供应链安全咨询的一手经验，构建了一个多维度、动态的分析模型，用以衡量和提升供应链的“抗脆弱性”（Antifragility）。 全书共分为六大部分，逻辑清晰，层层递进，旨在引导读者从“线性思维”转向“网络化、适应性思维”。 第一部分：范式转移——从“精益求精”到“韧性优先” 本部分首先对过去三十年主导供应链设计的“JIT (Just-In-Time)”和“微笑曲线”模型进行了批判性回顾。作者指出，在低波动环境下的成本优化策略，在面对高频、高强度的外部冲击时，其内在的脆弱性暴露无遗。 章节聚焦： 供应链的“熵增”现象——过度优化导致的系统刚性；“深度依赖风险”的量化分析；以及新兴的“冗余的价值”理论，即适度的库存和地理分散化不再是浪费，而是必需的保险机制。 核心观点： 企业的竞争优势正从“谁的单位成本最低”转向“谁能在冲击发生后最快恢复正常运营并从中学习”。 第二部分：风险的图谱与量化——超越历史数据的局限 现代风险管理面临的核心挑战是，新的风险（如AI驱动的网络攻击、极端天气事件）缺乏历史数据支撑。范德比尔特教授引入了“多模态风险评估框架 (Multi-Modal Risk Assessment, MMRA)”，该框架整合了机器学习预测、社会网络分析（SNA）和情景规划（Scenario Planning）。 技术应用： 详细阐述了如何利用数字孪生技术模拟关键节点的断裂，评估“雪崩效应”的传播速度。 案例分析： 深入剖析了某半导体供应链在关键原材料产地关闭后，企业内部的决策延迟如何导致数亿美元的损失，并提出“预置干预点”的策略。 第三部分：区域化与去中心化——重构地理布局的战略艺术 地缘政治紧张局势和贸易保护主义的抬头，迫使企业重新思考“全球化”的边界。本部分重点讨论了“友岸外包”（Friend-Shoring）和“近岸外包”（Near-Shoring）的经济学可行性与操作难度。 成本效益分析： 不仅计算了运输成本的节约，更重要的是对“政治成本”和“知识产权泄露风险”进行了长期的净现值（NPV）折算。 构建“多极化”网络： 提出了“3+2+1”区域化布局模型——即在三个主要消费市场附近建立核心制造集群，通过两个备用供应中心进行弹性支撑，并保留一个关键技术垄断点的全球集成策略。 第四部分：可持续性作为韧性的驱动力 传统观念认为，绿色转型和供应链韧性是相互制约的成本项。本书则提出强有力的论据，证明环境、社会和治理（ESG）标准高的企业，其供应链在长期内表现出更高的抗风险能力。 循环经济实践： 探讨了如何通过逆向物流和产品生命周期管理（PLM）的整合，将废弃物转化为第二资源，从而降低对初级原材料价格波动的敏感性。 劳动力因素： 分析了改善工作条件、提高供应链中下游工人福祉，如何直接减少罢工、生产中断和声誉风险。 第五部分：数字化赋能——从可见性到自主决策 供应链的数字化转型已进入新的阶段，不再满足于“可视化”（Visibility），而是追求“可预测性”（Predictability）和“自主响应”（Autonomy）。 区块链与可信度： 探讨了利用分布式账本技术解决跨境贸易中数据孤岛和信任缺失问题的潜力，特别是在高价值、易腐烂商品的追溯方面。 AI驱动的库存优化： 详细介绍了实时需求感知与动态库存部署系统（DRIDS）的架构设计，该系统能够根据突发事件（如港口拥堵、天气预警）自动调整安全库存水平和运输模式。 第六部分：治理结构与组织变革 技术和地理的重塑最终都必须落地于组织结构。本书强调，缺乏跨职能协作和清晰的决策权授权，任何供应链策略都将沦为空谈。 建立“情景战情室” (Scenario War Room)： 作者提供了一套标准化的流程，用于快速召集不同部门的专家，在危机发生后的72小时内形成一致的、可执行的应对方案。 供应商关系的新契约： 倡导从传统的“买方-卖方”关系，转向建立基于共同风险承担和长期价值分享的“战略伙伴关系”，特别是对于那些掌握关键、非替代性技术的“瓶颈供应商”。 读者对象 本书是为以下专业人士量身打造的： 跨国公司首席运营官（COO）、首席采购官（CPO）及供应链总监。 风险管理、业务连续性规划（BCP）的专家。 关注产业政策、全球贸易和国家安全的政府部门顾问。 商学院高年级本科生、MBA及EMBA学员。 专家评价 > “范德比尔特教授的这部著作是理解后疫情时代商业环境的基石。它毫不留情地拆解了过去二十年的效率神话，并以严谨的数据和前瞻性的框架，为我们描绘了一幅更复杂、但更具韧性的未来蓝图。任何试图在当前动荡市场中保持领先的企业，都必须将这本书置于案头。” > > —— 张明德 博士，亚洲物流与采购管理协会主席 > “本书最令人赞叹之处在于其平衡性。它既有对宏观地缘政治力量的深刻洞察，又有关于如何调整SAP系统模块的实操细节。它不是一本理论宣言，而是一份可立即付诸实践的战略手册。” > > —— 莎拉·科恩，全球制造业协会首席经济学家
作者简介
作者简介
杜安尼.戴维斯，佛罗里达中部大学教授。
目录信息
CONTENTS
PART1
SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY'S ROLE IN
DECLSION MAKING
CHAPTER 1
THE RPLE OF BUSINESS RESEARCH
THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
OVERVIEW
THE NATURE OF DECISION MAKING
Leveis of Decision Making
Devels of Declsion Making
Decision-Making Processes
THE ROLE OF RESEARCH IN DECISION MAKING
Business Research Defined
Business Research and Ethics
Role in Declsion Making
Research and the internmational Buslness
Seffing
THE MANAGER-RESEARCHER RELATLONSHIP
PLAN OF THE BOOK
The Business Research Process
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READING
CHAPTER 2
SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY
OVERVIEW
DEFINITIONS
Observations,Facts
Concepts,Constructs,Deflinlfions,Variables
Problems,Hypotheses,Laws
Theories, Models
METHODS OF THEORY CONSTRUCTlON
Model-Based Theory
Deductive Theory
Functional Theory
Inductive Theory
RELEVANCE OF SClENCE IN BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
Science versus Nonscience
Scientific Method
STATE OF THE ART IN BUSlNESS RESEARCH
Levels of Scientiflc Endeavor
Computers and Buslness Research
Where Do We Go from Here?
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART 2
BEGlNNlNG THE RESEARCH
PROCESS
CHAPTER 3
SECONDARY DATA COLLECTlON IN
BUSlNESS INQUlRY
OVERVlEW
SECONDARY DATA IN BUSlNESS RESEARCH
Uses of Secondary Data
Search Strategy
SELECTlON OF DATA RETRlEVAL METHODS
Manual Searches
Online Searches
vlii
CONTENTS
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER 4
PROBLEM AND PROPOSAL
DEVELOPMENT AND
MANAGEMENT
OVERVlEW
PROBLEM IDENTlFlCATlON AND
FORMULATlON
Problem Identification
Problem Formulation
The Question of Value
PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT
A Typology of Business-Related Research
Proposals
Structure of a Proposal
A Sample Research Proposal
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
Proposal Evaluation Mechanisms
Other Control Mechanlsms
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: METHODS OF ASSESSlNG THE VALUE
OF RESEARCH INFORMATlON
Bayesian Decislon Analysis
Simple Savings Method
Return on Investment
Notes
PART 3
RESEARCH DESlGN
CHAPTER 5
FUNDAMENTALS OF RESEARCH
DESlGN
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF RESEARCH DESlGN
ERROR REDUCTlON THROUGH DESlGN
Potential Sources of Error in the Research
Process
Managerial Strategies for Dealing with Error
MAJOR TYPES OF DESlGNS
Ex Post Facto Deslgns
Experimental Designs
SPEClFlC DESlGN CONFlGURATlONS
Validlty Concerns
Speciflc Designs
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: ADVANCED EXPERlMENTAL
DESlGNS
Completely Randomized Design
Randomized Block Design
The Latin Square Design
Factorial Design
Analysis of Covariance
Notes
CHAPTER 6
FOUNDATlONS OF MEASUREMENT
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF MEASUREMENT
Components of Measurement
The Measurement Process
LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
Nominal
Ordinal
Interval
Ratio
EVALUATlON OF MEASUREMENT SCALES
Validity
Reliability
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: COMPUTATlONAL EXAMPLE OF
COEFFlClENT ALPHA FOR ENERGY
CONSClOUSNESS MULTl-lTEM SCALE
APPENDlX: A COMPUTATlONAL EXAMPLE
ILLUSTRATlNG THE PROPERTlES OF THE CENTRAL
LlMlT THEOREM
Notes
CHAPTER 7
SCAUNG AND INSTRUMENT
DESlGN
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF INSTRUMENT DESlGN
SCALE DEVELOPMENT
Item Phrasing
Response Formats
Frequently Used Scaling Techniques
INSTRUMENT DESlGN
Scale Sequencing and Layout
Pretesting and Collecting
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER 8
SAMPUNG DESlGN
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF SAMPLlNG
Terminology
The Rationale for Sampling
The Sampling Process
AN llMTRODUCTlON TO THE PHlLOSOPHY OF
SAMPLlNG
SAMPLE DESlGNS
Sample Design Choice Considerations
Probability Designs
PRACTlCAL CONSlDERATlONS IN SAMPUNG
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART4
DATA COLLECTlON
CHAPTER 9
PRlMARY DATA COLLECTlON
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF PRlMARY DATA COLLECTlON
(PDC)
PASSlVE PDC
ACTlVE PDC
Personal Interviewing
Telephone Interviewing
Mail Interviewing
Computerized Interviewing
A Comparison of Collection Methods
PDC VENDORS
PANEL VENDORS
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: QUALlTATlVE RESEARCH
Nature and Uses of Qualitative Research
Types of Qualitative Research
Notes
CHAPTER l 0
MODEL BUlLDlNG; SELECTlON
AND USE
OVERVlEW
IMPORTANCE AND TERMlNOLOGY
VERBAL VERSUS MATHEMATlCAL MODELS
TYPES OF MODELS
Classification Criteria
Model Speclflcation
Managerial Objectives of Modeling
SELECTlNG A MODEL SOLUTlON TECHNlQUE
Sample Decislon Models and Solution
Techniques
AN EXAMPLE OF MODEL CONSTRUCTlON
SOLUTlON, AND USE
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART5
ANALYTlCAL PROCEDURES
C H A P T E R l l
PLANNlNG FOR DATA ANALYSlS
OVERVlEW
PLANNlNG ISSUES
SELECTlNG APPROPRlATE ANALYTlCAL
SOFTWARE
THE PREANALYTlCAL PROCESS
Step 1:DataEditing
Step 2: Variable Development
Step 3: Data Coding
Step 4: Error Check
Step 5: Data Structure Generation
Step 6: Preanalytical Computer Check
Step 7: Tabulation
BASlC ANALYTlCAL FRAMEWORK FOR BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER l 2
BASlC ANALYTlCAL METHODS
OVERVlEW
CLASSlFlCATlON OF ANALYTlCAL METHODS BY
PURPOSE
BASlC METHODS OF ASSESSlNG
ASSOClATlON
Crosstabulation
Contingency Correlation
Spearman Rank Correlation
Pearson's r
BASlC METHODS OF ASSESSlNG
DlFFERENCES
Chi-Square Test
Z-Test for Differences in Proportions
t-Test for Differences in Means
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: ADDlTlONAL BASlC ANALYTlCAL
TECHNlQUES
The Normal Distribution
Calculation of the Sample Mean X and Sample
Variance s2
Standardizing a Data Array
Covariation (Covariance)
CHAPTER l 3
ANALYSlS OF VARlANCE AND
REGRESSlON TECHNlQUES
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF VARlANCE
DECOMPOSlTlON
LlNEAR MODELS
One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
Two-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
Llnear Regression
Analysis of Covariance
NONPARAMETRlC ANOVA
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: THE USE OF DUMMY AND EFFECT
CODlNG TO EXAMlNE GROUP DlFFERENCES
USlNG MULTlPLE LlNEAR REGRESSlON
CHAPTER l 4
ADVANCED MULTlVARlATE
ANALYSlS
OVERVlEW
INTRODUCTlON TO MULTlVARlATE ANALYSlS
SELECTlON OF A MULTlVARlATE TECHNlQUE
ANALYSlS OF DEPENDENCY
Multivariate Analysis of Variance
Multiple Discrimlnant Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
Covariance Structure Analysis
ANALYSlS OF iNTERDEPENDENCY
Factor Analysis
Cluster Analysis
Multidimensional Scaling
COMMENT ON MULTlVARlATE TECHNlQUES
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART6
RESEARCH REPORTlNG AND
EVALUATlON
CHAPTER 1 5
ETHlCAL CONSlDERATlONS IN BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
OVERVlEW
ETHlCAL CONSlDERATlONS IN BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
Societal Rights
Subjects' Rights
Clients'/Managers' Rights
Researchers' Rights
CODES OF ETHlCS
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: EXCERPTS FROM THE lCC/ESOMAR
INTERNATlONAL CODE OF MARKETlNG AND
SOClAL RESEARCH PRACTlCE
Introduction
3.2 Code
Appendix 1
CHAPTER l6
RESEARCH REPORTlNG
OVERVlEW
WRlTTEN RESEARCH REPORTS
The Outline
Guidelines
ORAL PRESENTATlONS
COMMUNlCATlON CHALLENGES IN THE
FUTURE
MANAGERtAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER 17
EVALUATlON OF BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
OVERVlEW
EVALUATlNG A RESEARCH REPORT
Evaluation: Problem Development
Evaluation: Research Design
Evaluation: Data Collectlon
Evaluation: Analytical Procedures
Evaluation: Reportlng
Overall Evaluative Score
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX A
A PRACTlTlONER'S GulDE TO
SECONDARY BUSlNESS INFORMATlON
SOURCES
RESEARCH GUlDES AND BlBLlOGRAPHlES
ENCYCLOPEDlAS, DlRECTORlES, DlCTlONARlES
AND HANDBOOKS
INDEXES
STATlSTlCAL SOURCES
REFERENCES FOR (NDlVlDUAL COMPANlES
OTHER SOURCES: (NTERNATlONAL BUSlNESS
A NOTE ON THE STANDARD INDUSTRlAL
CLASSlRCATlON (SlC)
APPENDlX B
SELECTED STATlSTlCAL TABLES
TABLE B. RANDOM NUMBERS
TABLE B.2 AREAS UNDER THE NORMAL
CURVE
TABLE B.3 DlSTRlBUTlON OF t
TABLE B.4 DtSTRtBUTlON OF x2
TABLEB.5FDtSTRlBUTlON
TABLE B.6 FlSHER'S zTRANSFORMATlON
OF rxy
lNDEX
· · · · · · (收起)
PART1
SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY'S ROLE IN
DECLSION MAKING
CHAPTER 1
THE RPLE OF BUSINESS RESEARCH
THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
OVERVIEW
THE NATURE OF DECISION MAKING
Leveis of Decision Making
Devels of Declsion Making
Decision-Making Processes
THE ROLE OF RESEARCH IN DECISION MAKING
Business Research Defined
Business Research and Ethics
Role in Declsion Making
Research and the internmational Buslness
Seffing
THE MANAGER-RESEARCHER RELATLONSHIP
PLAN OF THE BOOK
The Business Research Process
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READING
CHAPTER 2
SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY
OVERVIEW
DEFINITIONS
Observations,Facts
Concepts,Constructs,Deflinlfions,Variables
Problems,Hypotheses,Laws
Theories, Models
METHODS OF THEORY CONSTRUCTlON
Model-Based Theory
Deductive Theory
Functional Theory
Inductive Theory
RELEVANCE OF SClENCE IN BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
Science versus Nonscience
Scientific Method
STATE OF THE ART IN BUSlNESS RESEARCH
Levels of Scientiflc Endeavor
Computers and Buslness Research
Where Do We Go from Here?
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART 2
BEGlNNlNG THE RESEARCH
PROCESS
CHAPTER 3
SECONDARY DATA COLLECTlON IN
BUSlNESS INQUlRY
OVERVlEW
SECONDARY DATA IN BUSlNESS RESEARCH
Uses of Secondary Data
Search Strategy
SELECTlON OF DATA RETRlEVAL METHODS
Manual Searches
Online Searches
vlii
CONTENTS
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER 4
PROBLEM AND PROPOSAL
DEVELOPMENT AND
MANAGEMENT
OVERVlEW
PROBLEM IDENTlFlCATlON AND
FORMULATlON
Problem Identification
Problem Formulation
The Question of Value
PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT
A Typology of Business-Related Research
Proposals
Structure of a Proposal
A Sample Research Proposal
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
Proposal Evaluation Mechanisms
Other Control Mechanlsms
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: METHODS OF ASSESSlNG THE VALUE
OF RESEARCH INFORMATlON
Bayesian Decislon Analysis
Simple Savings Method
Return on Investment
Notes
PART 3
RESEARCH DESlGN
CHAPTER 5
FUNDAMENTALS OF RESEARCH
DESlGN
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF RESEARCH DESlGN
ERROR REDUCTlON THROUGH DESlGN
Potential Sources of Error in the Research
Process
Managerial Strategies for Dealing with Error
MAJOR TYPES OF DESlGNS
Ex Post Facto Deslgns
Experimental Designs
SPEClFlC DESlGN CONFlGURATlONS
Validlty Concerns
Speciflc Designs
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: ADVANCED EXPERlMENTAL
DESlGNS
Completely Randomized Design
Randomized Block Design
The Latin Square Design
Factorial Design
Analysis of Covariance
Notes
CHAPTER 6
FOUNDATlONS OF MEASUREMENT
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF MEASUREMENT
Components of Measurement
The Measurement Process
LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
Nominal
Ordinal
Interval
Ratio
EVALUATlON OF MEASUREMENT SCALES
Validity
Reliability
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: COMPUTATlONAL EXAMPLE OF
COEFFlClENT ALPHA FOR ENERGY
CONSClOUSNESS MULTl-lTEM SCALE
APPENDlX: A COMPUTATlONAL EXAMPLE
ILLUSTRATlNG THE PROPERTlES OF THE CENTRAL
LlMlT THEOREM
Notes
CHAPTER 7
SCAUNG AND INSTRUMENT
DESlGN
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF INSTRUMENT DESlGN
SCALE DEVELOPMENT
Item Phrasing
Response Formats
Frequently Used Scaling Techniques
INSTRUMENT DESlGN
Scale Sequencing and Layout
Pretesting and Collecting
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER 8
SAMPUNG DESlGN
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF SAMPLlNG
Terminology
The Rationale for Sampling
The Sampling Process
AN llMTRODUCTlON TO THE PHlLOSOPHY OF
SAMPLlNG
SAMPLE DESlGNS
Sample Design Choice Considerations
Probability Designs
PRACTlCAL CONSlDERATlONS IN SAMPUNG
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART4
DATA COLLECTlON
CHAPTER 9
PRlMARY DATA COLLECTlON
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF PRlMARY DATA COLLECTlON
(PDC)
PASSlVE PDC
ACTlVE PDC
Personal Interviewing
Telephone Interviewing
Mail Interviewing
Computerized Interviewing
A Comparison of Collection Methods
PDC VENDORS
PANEL VENDORS
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: QUALlTATlVE RESEARCH
Nature and Uses of Qualitative Research
Types of Qualitative Research
Notes
CHAPTER l 0
MODEL BUlLDlNG; SELECTlON
AND USE
OVERVlEW
IMPORTANCE AND TERMlNOLOGY
VERBAL VERSUS MATHEMATlCAL MODELS
TYPES OF MODELS
Classification Criteria
Model Speclflcation
Managerial Objectives of Modeling
SELECTlNG A MODEL SOLUTlON TECHNlQUE
Sample Decislon Models and Solution
Techniques
AN EXAMPLE OF MODEL CONSTRUCTlON
SOLUTlON, AND USE
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART5
ANALYTlCAL PROCEDURES
C H A P T E R l l
PLANNlNG FOR DATA ANALYSlS
OVERVlEW
PLANNlNG ISSUES
SELECTlNG APPROPRlATE ANALYTlCAL
SOFTWARE
THE PREANALYTlCAL PROCESS
Step 1:DataEditing
Step 2: Variable Development
Step 3: Data Coding
Step 4: Error Check
Step 5: Data Structure Generation
Step 6: Preanalytical Computer Check
Step 7: Tabulation
BASlC ANALYTlCAL FRAMEWORK FOR BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER l 2
BASlC ANALYTlCAL METHODS
OVERVlEW
CLASSlFlCATlON OF ANALYTlCAL METHODS BY
PURPOSE
BASlC METHODS OF ASSESSlNG
ASSOClATlON
Crosstabulation
Contingency Correlation
Spearman Rank Correlation
Pearson's r
BASlC METHODS OF ASSESSlNG
DlFFERENCES
Chi-Square Test
Z-Test for Differences in Proportions
t-Test for Differences in Means
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: ADDlTlONAL BASlC ANALYTlCAL
TECHNlQUES
The Normal Distribution
Calculation of the Sample Mean X and Sample
Variance s2
Standardizing a Data Array
Covariation (Covariance)
CHAPTER l 3
ANALYSlS OF VARlANCE AND
REGRESSlON TECHNlQUES
OVERVlEW
THE NATURE OF VARlANCE
DECOMPOSlTlON
LlNEAR MODELS
One-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
Two-Way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
Llnear Regression
Analysis of Covariance
NONPARAMETRlC ANOVA
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: THE USE OF DUMMY AND EFFECT
CODlNG TO EXAMlNE GROUP DlFFERENCES
USlNG MULTlPLE LlNEAR REGRESSlON
CHAPTER l 4
ADVANCED MULTlVARlATE
ANALYSlS
OVERVlEW
INTRODUCTlON TO MULTlVARlATE ANALYSlS
SELECTlON OF A MULTlVARlATE TECHNlQUE
ANALYSlS OF DEPENDENCY
Multivariate Analysis of Variance
Multiple Discrimlnant Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
Covariance Structure Analysis
ANALYSlS OF iNTERDEPENDENCY
Factor Analysis
Cluster Analysis
Multidimensional Scaling
COMMENT ON MULTlVARlATE TECHNlQUES
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
PART6
RESEARCH REPORTlNG AND
EVALUATlON
CHAPTER 1 5
ETHlCAL CONSlDERATlONS IN BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
OVERVlEW
ETHlCAL CONSlDERATlONS IN BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
Societal Rights
Subjects' Rights
Clients'/Managers' Rights
Researchers' Rights
CODES OF ETHlCS
MANAGERlAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX: EXCERPTS FROM THE lCC/ESOMAR
INTERNATlONAL CODE OF MARKETlNG AND
SOClAL RESEARCH PRACTlCE
Introduction
3.2 Code
Appendix 1
CHAPTER l6
RESEARCH REPORTlNG
OVERVlEW
WRlTTEN RESEARCH REPORTS
The Outline
Guidelines
ORAL PRESENTATlONS
COMMUNlCATlON CHALLENGES IN THE
FUTURE
MANAGERtAL CONSlDERATlONS
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
NOTES
SUGGESTED READlNG
CHAPTER 17
EVALUATlON OF BUSlNESS
RESEARCH
OVERVlEW
EVALUATlNG A RESEARCH REPORT
Evaluation: Problem Development
Evaluation: Research Design
Evaluation: Data Collectlon
Evaluation: Analytical Procedures
Evaluation: Reportlng
Overall Evaluative Score
SUMMARY
DlSCUSSlON QUESTlONS
SUGGESTED READlNG
APPENDlX A
A PRACTlTlONER'S GulDE TO
SECONDARY BUSlNESS INFORMATlON
SOURCES
RESEARCH GUlDES AND BlBLlOGRAPHlES
ENCYCLOPEDlAS, DlRECTORlES, DlCTlONARlES
AND HANDBOOKS
INDEXES
STATlSTlCAL SOURCES
REFERENCES FOR (NDlVlDUAL COMPANlES
OTHER SOURCES: (NTERNATlONAL BUSlNESS
A NOTE ON THE STANDARD INDUSTRlAL
CLASSlRCATlON (SlC)
APPENDlX B
SELECTED STATlSTlCAL TABLES
TABLE B. RANDOM NUMBERS
TABLE B.2 AREAS UNDER THE NORMAL
CURVE
TABLE B.3 DlSTRlBUTlON OF t
TABLE B.4 DtSTRtBUTlON OF x2
TABLEB.5FDtSTRlBUTlON
TABLE B.6 FlSHER'S zTRANSFORMATlON
OF rxy
lNDEX
· · · · · · (收起)
读后感
用户评价
我购买这本书的初衷是希望找到一本能系统梳理“大数据时代决策框架”的权威著作，市面上很多书籍要么是技术手册，要么是管理口号，缺乏一个扎实的理论底座。这本第四版在“预测分析与规范性决策”的章节中，成功地填补了这一空白。作者非常审慎地探讨了机器学习模型在商业预测中的局限性，特别是“模型漂移”（Model Drift）和“反事实推理”的难题。他们强调，无论算法多么先进，如果不能有效地整合因果推断（Causal Inference）的思维，最终的决策依然可能是对历史相关性的盲目重复。书中对于“A/B测试设计与多臂老虎机策略”的比较分析，清晰地展示了在探索与利用之间如何动态权衡资源分配，这对于优化市场营销和产品迭代至关重要。更让我感到实用的是，书中还配有一套详细的“决策质量审计清单”，这个清单要求决策者不仅要评估结果，更要追溯决策的输入变量、模型假设以及替代方案的完备性。这本书的价值，在于它提供了一套完整的“反思性决策操作系统”，教导我们如何驾驭数据，而非被数据所奴役。
这本《企业决策研究：第四版：英文》的修订版，简直是为我们这些在瞬息万变的市场环境中摸爬滚打的管理者和战略制定者量身定做的指南。我刚翻开导论部分，就被作者那种直击核心的洞察力所震撼。它没有沉湎于空泛的理论陈述，而是迅速切入了现代企业决策所面临的“阿喀琉斯之踵”——信息的过载与决策的滞后。书中对贝叶斯推理在不确定性决策中的应用进行了极其详尽的阐述，这一点在以往的教科书中常常被一笔带过，但在这里，作者通过一系列生动的案例，比如一家高科技初创公司如何在竞争对手发布新产品前夕，利用有限的早期市场数据进行迭代定价模型的修正，将抽象的概率模型具象化了。尤其是关于“认知偏差的量化干预”这一章，给我留下了深刻的印象。它不再仅仅停留在罗列“锚定效应”、“确认偏误”这些名词上，而是深入探讨了如何在团队决策过程中，设计结构化的“红队分析”和“事前验尸”环节，有效地将这些人类固有的思维陷阱从决策链中剥离出去。这种务实到近乎苛刻的分析方法，使得整本书读起来像是一本高强度的智力训练手册，而不是一本普通的学术专著。我感觉，即便是经验丰富的高管，也能从中挖掘出优化自身决策流程的实用工具。
这本书的英文原版翻译质量非常高，语言流畅且专业术语运用得体，读起来完全没有障碍，这对于深入理解复杂的决策理论至关重要。我个人对其中关于“动态一致性与时间偏好”的探讨给予高度评价。在个人理财和企业长期战略规划中，人们往往面临“今天少享乐，明天多回报”的内在冲突。本书巧妙地引用了最新的神经经济学研究成果，解释了前额皮层与边缘系统在延迟满足中的作用机制，并在此基础上提出了“基于行为契约的决策锁定机制”。这种将生物学发现与管理学工具相结合的做法，极大地丰富了决策干预手段的多样性。例如，书中介绍的一种“预先承诺机制”——即事先设定触发条件，一旦条件满足，自动执行预定行动，这对于克服组织中的拖延症和短期主义倾向异常有效。总而言之，这本书的第四版体现了明显的进步，它不仅更新了前沿的计算方法，更在如何“影响人做出更好的选择”这一根本问题上，提供了更具人性化洞察力的解决方案。它的内容密度极高，我需要反复研读才能完全消化其中的精髓。
我最近正在为公司筹备一项重大的跨国并购案，急需一本能提供坚实理论支撑和实操框架的参考书目。有幸读到了这本《企业决策研究：第四版：英文》，发现它在“风险评估与期权定价”这部分的内容，简直就是我目前工作的实时“解药”。以往我接触到的风险管理多侧重于传统的敏感性分析，但本书引入的实物期权理论（Real Options Theory）视角，彻底颠覆了我对项目投资决策的理解。作者用清晰的数学推导和极其细致的案例分析，展示了在面对高不确定性和高不可逆性投资时，如何通过保留未来调整决策的灵活性来最大化企业价值。书中关于“管理弹性”如何被量化为一种资产的讨论，极具启发性。例如，他们分析了某能源企业如何通过分阶段投资策略，而非一次性巨额投入，成功规避了未来碳税政策变动带来的潜在损失。此外，书中对“博弈论在供应商谈判中的应用”这一章节的深度也是空前的，它不仅介绍了纳什均衡，更着重讲解了如何通过改变信息结构和承诺机制，在重复博弈中建立对自己有利的“承诺子博弈”，这对于我们处理复杂的供应链关系至关重要。这本书的英文表达精准而富有张力，学术深度和实战价值达到了完美的平衡。
作为一名专注于组织行为学的研究者，我通常对偏重“硬科学”的决策模型抱持一丝保留态度，认为它们往往忽略了组织文化和人际互动的微妙影响。然而，这本《企业决策研究：第四版：英文》在探讨“群体决策的动态过程”时，展现出了令人惊喜的广度和深度，完美地弥合了定量分析与定性洞察之间的鸿沟。书中的“信息瀑布效应”与“决策极化”的讨论，不再是简单地指出现象，而是深入剖析了信息传播路径和组织层级结构如何加速这些偏差的形成。特别是关于“去中心化决策权”的章节，它通过对比不同组织架构下信息传递效率的实证研究，为我们理解“授权”的真正含义提供了量化的证据。我特别欣赏作者对“道德决策的理性边界”这一主题的处理。他们引入了“有限理性”框架下的情感驱动模型，论证了在压力情境下，决策者的道德直觉如何被路径依赖性思维所劫持，并提出了基于“责任倒置”原则的伦理审查流程。这种跨学科的融合，让整本书读起来既有严谨的逻辑架构，又不失对人类行为复杂性的深刻体察。
