An Introduction to Econometric Theory

An Introduction to Econometric Theory pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

出版者:Princeton University Press
作者:A. Ronald Gallant
出品人:
页数:214
译者:
出版时间:1997-7-7
价格:GBP 100.00
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9780691016450
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • Econometrics
  • Econometric Theory
  • Statistics
  • Mathematical Economics
  • Quantitative Economics
  • Regression Analysis
  • Time Series Analysis
  • Microeconometrics
  • Macroeconometrics
  • Econometric Modeling
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具体描述

Intended primarily to prepare first-year graduate students for their ongoing work in econometrics, economic theory, and finance, this innovative book presents the fundamental concepts of theoretical econometrics, from measure-theoretic probability to statistics. A. Ronald Gallant covers these topics at an introductory level and develops the ideas to the point where they can be applied. He thereby provides the reader not only with a basic grasp of the key empirical tools but with sound intuition as well.

In addition to covering the basic tools of empirical work in economics and finance, Gallant devotes particular attention to motivating ideas and presenting them as the solution to practical problems. For example, he presents correlation, regression, and conditional expectation as a means of obtaining the best approximation of one random variable by some function of another. He considers linear, polynomial, and unrestricted functions, and leads the reader to the notion of conditioning on a sigma-algebra as a means for finding the unrestricted solution. The reader thus gains an understanding of the relationships among linear, polynomial, and unrestricted solutions. Proofs of results are presented when the proof itself aids understanding or when the proof technique has practical value.

A major text-treatise by one of the leading scholars in this field, An Introduction to Econometric Theory will prove valuable not only to graduate students but also to all economists, statisticians, and finance professionals interested in the ideas and implications of theoretical econometrics.

Review:

"This is an excellent book . . . There are chapters on probability, random variables and expectations, distributions and convergence concepts. . . . It is very concise, yet treat most relevant topics in a clear and precise way."--Mathematical Reviews

Endorsement:

"An excellent book. It covers the measure-theoretic material in a very understandable way, while offering some very neat proofs and motivating arguments. Professionals as well as students will want to buy this text, as it offers a very useful compendium of results that one can refer to."--Adrian Pagan, Australian National University in Canberra

《计量经济学导论:理论与实践》 内容概要 本书旨在为读者提供计量经济学核心理论的全面而深入的介绍,同时强调其实际应用和在经济学研究中的重要性。它不仅涵盖了经典计量经济学的基础模型,如线性回归分析,还拓展到更高级的主题,如时间序列分析、面板数据方法以及非线性模型。本书的结构设计旨在平衡理论的严谨性与实践的可操作性,使读者能够掌握分析和解释经济数据的强大工具。 第一部分:计量经济学基础与单方程模型 本书开篇将读者带入计量经济学的世界,解释其在经济学研究中的核心地位,以及如何将经济理论转化为可检验的统计模型。 概率与统计回顾: 为后续的计量经济学分析奠定坚实的数学基础,重点复习随机变量、概率分布、大数定律和中心极限定理等概念。 线性回归模型的设定与假设 (OLS): 详细阐述普通最小二乘法(OLS)的数学推导、估计过程,以及高斯-马尔可夫(Gauss-Markov)假设的意义。重点讨论无偏性、一致性和有效性的概念。 多重线性回归分析: 扩展到包含多个解释变量的模型。深入探讨多重共线性、异方差性(Heteroskedasticity)和序列相关性(Autocorrelation)的处理方法。详细分析了如何识别这些问题,并介绍了一般最小二乘法(GLS)及其修正方法,如稳健标准误(Robust Standard Errors)。 模型设定检验与函数形式选择: 探讨模型设定错误的后果,包括遗漏变量偏差和函数形式选择不当(如对数线性模型、二次项等)的影响。介绍拉姆塞回归设定检验(RESET Test)等工具。 虚拟变量(Dummy Variables)的应用: 解释如何在回归模型中纳入定性信息,如季节性、制度差异或政策冲击,并讨论交互项的解释。 第二部分:时间序列分析 随着经济数据越来越多地以时间序列形式出现,对动态过程的分析变得至关重要。本部分专注于时间序列数据的独有挑战和分析技术。 平稳性与非平稳性: 引入随机过程的概念,区分严稳态、弱稳态和平稳性。深入分析单位根检验(Unit Root Tests),如迪基-福勒(Dickey-Fuller, DF)和增广迪基-福勒(Augmented Dickey-Fuller, ADF)检验,以及处理非平稳数据的方法。 自回归与移动平均模型 (ARIMA 框架): 详细介绍自回归(AR)、移动平均(MA)以及两者的组合(ARMA)模型的结构、识别(ACF和PACF图的应用)和估计。最终构建完整的自回归积分移动平均(ARIMA)模型,用于描述和预测单变量时间序列。 协整(Cointegration)与长期关系: 当多个非平稳序列之间存在长期均衡关系时,引入协整的概念。讲解恩格尔-格兰杰(Engle-Granger)两步法和约翰森(Johansen)检验,并介绍误差修正模型(ECM)如何捕捉短期动态与长期均衡的互动。 向量自回归(VAR)模型: 探讨多元时间序列分析,构建VAR模型来描述多个变量之间的相互依赖关系。重点介绍脉冲响应函数(Impulse Response Functions, IRF)用于分析冲击的动态传播效应,以及格兰杰因果关系检验(Granger Causality Test)。 第三部分:面板数据分析 面板数据(Panel Data)结合了时间和截面信息,提供了更丰富的信息量,并有效控制了不可观测的个体异质性。 面板数据模型的优点与结构: 解释面板数据相对于纯时间序列或纯截面数据的优势,包括控制遗漏变量偏差和增加自由度。 固定效应模型 (Fixed Effects, FE): 详细推导和解释固定效应模型,说明其如何通过“组内估计”消除不随时间变化的个体特有效应。讨论LSDV(Least Squares Dummy Variable)和去均值方法的应用。 随机效应模型 (Random Effects, RE): 介绍随机效应模型的设定,以及它相对于固定效应模型的假设条件。 FE与RE的选择: 关键在于豪斯曼检验(Hausman Test),本章将解释该检验的原理和实际操作,帮助研究者根据数据特性做出最优选择。 动态面板数据模型: 针对存在滞后被解释变量作为解释变量的情况,引入动态面板模型。重点介绍对动态效应进行一致性估计的差分GMM(Arellano-Bond)和系统GMM(Blundell-Bond)估计器及其相关的有效性检验。 第四部分:高级主题与估计方法 本部分深入探讨超越标准线性模型的更复杂的估计和推断技术。 工具变量法 (Instrumental Variables, IV): 专门处理内生性问题(如反向因果关系或遗漏变量导致的内生性)。详细解释工具变量的有效性条件(相关性和外生性),并介绍两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)的估计与检验。 极大似然估计 (Maximum Likelihood Estimation, MLE): 介绍MLE的基本原理,它在非线性模型和特定分布假设下的估计能力,并讨论似然比检验(Likelihood Ratio Test)作为模型比较的工具。 离散选择模型 (Discrete Choice Models): 当因变量是二元(是/否)或多元选择时,传统的OLS不再适用。本章将详细介绍概率模型,包括Logit和Probit模型,解释其估计、解释边际效应和进行预测。 异方差性与异方差工具变量(Heteroskedasticity-Robust IV): 在IV估计中,如果存在异方差性,传统的标准误估计是不一致的。本章将介绍如何构建和应用稳健的IV标准误估计,以确保推断的有效性。 本书特色 本书不仅注重理论的严谨推导,更通过大量的实际经济学案例贯穿始终,涵盖宏观经济学、金融学、劳动经济学和微观产业组织等多个领域的数据应用。每章末尾均设有“软件实现与注释”部分,指导读者使用主流计量软件(如R或Stata)重现关键结果,确保理论知识能够无缝转化为实际研究能力。通过本导论的学习,读者将建立起一个坚实的计量经济学知识体系,为进一步深入研究奠定基础。

作者简介

Ron Gallant is Distinguished Scientist in Residence, Department of Economics, New York University and Hanes Corporation Foundation Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, with secondary appointment in the Department of Economics, Duke University. Before joining the Duke faculty, he was Henry A. Latane Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He retains emeritus status at UNC. Previously he was, successively, Assistant, Associate, Full, and Drexel Professor of Statistics and Economics at North Carolina State University. Gallant has held visiting positions at the University of Chicago, Duke University, and Northwestern University. He received his A.B. in mathematics from San Diego State University, his M.B.A. in marketing from the University of California at Los Angeles, and his Ph.D. in statistics from Iowa State University. He is a Fellow of both the Econometrics Society and the American Statistical Association. He has served on the Board of Directors of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Board of Directors of the American Statistical Association, and on the Board of Trustees of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences. He is co-editor of the Journal of Econometrics and past editor of The Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Gallant is interested in fitting models from the sciences to data for the purpose of statistical inference. Typically these models will involve a nonlinear parametric component that describes features of the model where the underlying scientific theory is explicit and a nonparametric component that accounts for features where the scientific theory is vague. Appropriate statistical methods for these problems are usually computationally intensive. Methodological interests are in developing statistical methods and numerical algorithms for fitting these models. Theoretical interests are in deriving the statistical properties of proposed methods, particularly the asymptotic properties of estimators of functionals of the nonparametric component. Applied interests are primarily within economics and finance.

目录信息

Preface
Ch. 1 Probability 3
Ch. 2 Random Variables and Expectation 45
Ch. 3 Distributions, Transformations, and Moments 79
Ch. 4 Convergence Concepts 127
Ch. 5 Statistical Inference 147
Appendix: Distributions 189
References 197
Index 199
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