圖書標籤: 陳虎平推薦
发表于2024-11-12
Fooled by Randomness pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024
Now in a striking new hardcover edition, Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading– Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS :
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
“[ Fooled by Randomness ] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink
“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999
“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving
“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate
“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
–National Review
“If asked to name the five best books written about markets, Fooled by Randomness would be on my list.”
–Jack D. Schwager, author of Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
“Excellent and thought-provoking . . . an entertaining book.”
–Financial Times
戴納西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布,絕大多數時候都是一名漫遊者,在地球各個角落的咖啡廳裏冥想。他早年曾經從商,目前是紐約大學特聘教授。曾在紐約和倫敦交易多種衍生性金融商品,也曾在芝加哥當過營業廳的獨立交易員。2001年2月正式成為衍生性金融商品交易戰略名人堂的一員。他的作品包括《隨機緻富的傻瓜》和《黑天鵝》,後者曾連續一年多列位《紐約時報》暢銷書榜,以31種語言齣版,是一本知識、社會和文化方麵的經典著作。
这本书分成三部分: 第一部分是讲偏态,偶然事件。还谈了很多与概率相关的问题。 第二部分是讲存活着偏差,由于我们只看到了成功者,而因此形成了对机遇的歪曲看法。 第三部分是讲路径依赖的,人们过去做出的选择决定了他们现在及未来可能的选择。 三部分内容的划分是明确的,...
評分 評分这本书用简单的统计学概念有趣地解释了许多常见的投资现象,其中最为核心的,是收益的不对称与决策的非理性对长期投资的种种影响。在某种意义上,这些讨论不仅对投资客有价值,也具有极强的哲学含义,可以在生活中的方方面面得到印证。 书中的一个核心问题是普遍存在的收益不...
評分如果一位投资者告诉你他认为开盘后美国股市上涨的可能性非常大,但是与此同时他却又在大手做空美股指数,你会作何感想?恐怕不是当他骗子,就是当他疯子。 不过你看完这本《随机致富的傻瓜》,就会重新认识此问题了,因为曾经出现过上述行为的,恰是此书的作者纳西姆·...
Fooled by Randomness pdf epub mobi txt 電子書 下載 2024