The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information

The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

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出版者:Cambridge University Press 作者:Jack Hirshleifer 出品人: 页数:480 Pages 译者: 出版时间:1992-09-25 价格:USD 50.00 装帧:Paperback isbn号码:9780521283694 丛书系列:
图书标签
  • 经济学
  • 教材
  • 微观经济学理论
  • 微观经济学
  • 信息经济学
  • 不确定性分析
  • 信息论
  • 数据分析
  • 统计推断
  • 风险管理
  • 决策科学
  • 贝叶斯方法
  • 机器学习
  • 信号处理
  • 概率论
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具体描述

Economists have always recognised that human endeavours are constrained by our limited and uncertain knowledge, but only recently has an accepted theory of uncertainty and information evolved. This theory has turned out to have surprisingly practical applications: for example in analysing stock market returns, in evaluating accident prevention measures, and in assessing patent and copyright laws. This book presents these intellectual advances in readable form for the first time. It unifies many important but partial results into a satisfying single picture, making it clear how the economics of uncertainty and information generalises and extends standard economic analysis. Part One of the volume covers the economics of uncertainty: how each person adapts to a given fixed state of knowledge by making an optimal choice among the immediate 'terminal' actions available. These choices in turn determine the overall market equilibrium reflecting the social distribution of risk bearing. In Part Two, covering the economics of information, the state of knowledge is no longer held fixed. Instead, individuals can to a greater or lesser extent overcome their ignorance by 'informational' actions. The text also addresses at appropriate points many specific topics such as insurance, the Capital Asset Pricing model, auctions, deterrence of entry, and research and invention.

《The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information》探索不确定性在现代数据环境中的深刻角色,将统计推理、信息理论与现实决策紧密结合。在本书中,作者以严谨的逻辑展开,不仅解构概率模型背后的哲学基础,更深入分析信息流动如何塑造认知边界与预测效能。从经典统计推断到贝叶斯网络,再到高维数据中的不确定性量化,全书系统梳理了处理未知的多层次方法论,强调不确定性不是障碍,而是理解世界复杂性的关键线索。 作者以金融市场、气候建模与人工智能系统为典型案例,展示信息获取、噪声过滤与决策优化的动态过程。通过引入熵概念与信息增益,书中揭示了如何在海量数据中识别信号,构建更稳健的预测框架,并探讨了人类认知有限性对不确定性判断的制约。同时,本书重视实践应用,介绍多种量化工具与可视化技术,为研究者和从业者提供可操作的分析路径。 语言清晰但富有深度,既适合统计学专业读者深入理解理论,也兼顾跨领域决策者需求。全书注重平衡数学严谨性与现实相关性,在不掩饰复杂性的同时,提供了应对模糊性环境的思维方式与工具箱。通过细致剖析信息与不确定性交织中的认知挑战,本著作成为探索数据时代复杂现象的重要参考,既丰富理论体系,也拓展方法实践的边界。

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