Spreadsheet Modeling in Corporate Finance

Spreadsheet Modeling in Corporate Finance pdf epub mobi txt 电子书 下载 2026

出版者:Prentice Hall
作者:Craig W. Holden
出品人:
页数:161 pages
译者:
出版时间:May 15, 2002
价格:USD 38.00
装帧:Paperback
isbn号码:9780130499059
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 金融
  • 数学
  • 思维
  • 财务建模
  • 电子表格
  • 公司金融
  • 财务分析
  • 投资
  • 估值
  • Excel
  • 财务决策
  • 建模技巧
  • 财务规划
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具体描述

Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.

For nearly 20 years, since the emergence of PCs, Lotus 1-2-3, and Microsoft Excel in the 1980's, spreadsheet models have been the dominant vehicles for finance professionals in the business world to implement their financial knowledge. Yet even today, most Corporate Finance textbooks rely on calculators as the primary tool and have little (if any) coverage of how to build spreadsheet models. This book fills that gap. It teaches students how to build financial models in Excel. It provides step-by-step instructions so that students can build models themselves (active learning), rather than handing students canned "templates" (passive learning). It progresses from simple examples to practical, real-world applications. It spans nearly all quantitative models in corporate finance.

Why I Wrote This Book

My goal is simply to change finance education from being calculator based to being spreadsheet modeling based. This change will better prepare students for the 21st century business world. This change will increase student satisfaction in the classroom by allowing more practical, real-world applications and by enabling a more hands-on, active learning approach.

There are many features which distinguish this book from anything else on the market:

Teach By Example. I believe that the best way to learn spreadsheet modeling is by working through examples and completing a lot of problems. This book fully develops this hands-on, active learning approach. Active learning is a well-established way to increase student learning and student satisfaction with the course / instructor. When students build financial models themselves, they really "get it." As I tell my students, "If you build it, you will learn."

Supplement For All Popular Corporate Finance Textbooks. This book is a supplement to be combined with a primary textbook. This means that you can keep using whatever textbook you like best. You don't have to switch. It also means that you can take an incremental approach to incorporating spreadsheet modeling. You can start modestly and build up from there. Alternative notation versions are available that match the notation of all popular corporate finance textbooks.

Plain Vanilla Excel. Other books on the market emphasize teaching students programming using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) or using macros. By contrast, this book does everything in plain vanilla Excel. Although programming is liked by a minority of students, it is seriously disliked by the majority. Plain vanilla Excel has the advantage of being a very intuitive, user-friendly environment that is accessible to all. It is fully capable of handling a wide range of applications, including quite sophisticated ones. Further, your students already know the basics of Excel and nothing more is assumed. Students are assumed to be able to enter formulas in a cell and to copy formulas from one cell to another. All other features of Excel (graphing, built-in functions, Solver, etc.) are explained as they are used.

Build From Simple Examples To Practical, Real-World Applications. The general approach is to start with a simple example and build up to a practical, real-world application. In many chapters, the previous spreadsheet model is carried forward to the next more complex model. For example, the chapter on binomial option pricing carries forward spreadsheet models as follows: (a.) single-period model with replicating portfolio, (b.) eight-period model with replicating portfolio, (c.) eight-period model with risk-neutral probabilities, (d.) full-scale, fifty-period model with volatilities estimated from real returns data. Whenever possible, this book builds up to full-scale, practical applications using real data. Students are excited to learn practical applications that they can actually use in their future jobs. Employers are excited to hire students with spreadsheet modeling skills, who can be more productive faster.

A Change In Content Too. Spreadsheet modeling is not merely a new medium, but an opportunity to cover some unique content items which require computer support to be feasible. For example, the full-scale, real data spreadsheet model in Corporate Financial Planning uses three years of historical l OK data on Nike, Inc. (including every line of their income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement), constructs a complete financial system (including linked financial ratios), and projects these financial statements three years into the future. The spreadsheet model in Life-Cycle Financial Planning includes a detailed treatment of federal and state tax schedules, social Security taxes and benefits, etc., which permit the realistic exploration savings, retirement, and investments choices over a lifetime. The spreadsheet model in US Yield Curve Dynamics shows you 30 years of monthly US yield curve history in just a few minutes. The spreadsheet model in Three Valuation Techniques demonstrates the equivalence of the Adjusted Present Value, Flows To Equity, and the Weighte9Average Cost of Capital methods, not just in the perpetuity case covered by most textbooks, but for a fully general two-stage project with an arbitrary set of cash flows over an explicit forecast horizon, followed by a infinite horizon perpetuity. As a practical matter, all of these sophisticated applications require spreadsheet modeling.

Conventions Used In This Book

This book uses a number of conventions.

Time Goes Across The Columns And Variables Go Down The Rows. When something happens over time, I let each column represent a period of time. For example in capital budgeting, year 0 is in column B, year 1 is in column C, year 2 is in column D, etc. Each row represents a different variable, which is usually a labeled in column A. This manner of organizing spreadsheets is so common because it is how financial statements are organized.

Color Coding. A standard color scheme is used to clarify the structure of the spreadsheet models. The printed book uses: (1) light gray shading for input values, (2) no shading (i.e. white) for throughput formulas, and (3) dark gray shading for final results ("the bottom line"). The accompanying electronic version of the book (a PDF file) uses: (1) yellow shading for input values, (2) no shading (i.e. white) for throughput formulas, and (3 green shading for final results ("the bottom line"). A few spreadsheets include choice variables. Choice variables use medium gray shading in the printed book and blue shading in the electronic version.

The Time Line Technique. The most natural technique for discounting cash flows in a spreadsheet model is the time line technique, where each column corresponds to a period of time. The time line technique handles the general case of the discount rate changing over time just as easily as the special case of a constant discount rate. Typically one does have some information about the time pattern of the riskfree rate from the term structure of interest rates. Even just adding a constant risk premium, yields a time pattern of discount rates. There is no reason to throw this information away, when it is just as easy to incorporate it into a spreadsheet. I use the time line technique and the general case of changing discount rates throughout the capital budgeting spreadsheet models.

Explicit Inflation Rate. A standard error in capital budgeting is to treat the cash flow projections and discount rate determination as if they came from separate planets with no relationship to each other. If the implicit inflation rate in the cash flow projection differs from the implicit inflation rate in the discount rate, then the analysis is inconsistent. The simple fix is to explicitly forecast the inflation rate and use this forecast in both the cash flow projection and the discount rate determination. The capital budgeting spreadsheet models teach this good modeling practice.

Dynamic Charts. Dynamic charts allow you to see such things as a "movie" of the Term Structure of Interest Rates moves over time or an "animated graph" of how increasing the volatility of an underlying stock increases the value of an option. Dynamic charts are a combination of an up/down arrow (a "spinner") to rapidly change an input and a chart to rapidly display the changing output. I invented dynamic charts back in 1995 and I have included many examples of this useful educational tool throughout this book.

Craig's Challenge

I challenge the readers of this book to dramatically improve your finance education by personally constructing all 53 spreadsheet models in all 20 chapters of this book. This will take you about 27 to 53 hours depending on your current spreadsheet skills. Let me assure you that it will be an excellent investment. You will:

gain a practical understanding of the core concepts of Corporate Finance,

develop hands-on, spreadsheet modeling skills, and

build an entire suite of finance applications, which you fully understand.

When you complete this challenge, I invite you to send an e-mail to me at cholden@indiana.edu to share the good news. Please tell me your name, school, (prospective) graduation year, and which spreadsheet modeling book you completed. I will add you to a web-based honor roll at:

http://www.spreadsheetmodeling.com/honor-roll.htm

We can celebrate together!

The Spreadsheet Modeling Series

This book is part a series of book/CDs on Spreadsheet Modeling by Craig W. Holden, published by Prentice Hall. The series includes:

Spreadsheet Modeling in Corporate Finance,

Spreadsheet Modeling in the Fundamentals of Corporate Finance,

Spreadsheet Modeling in Investments, and

Spreadsheet Modeling in the Fundamentals of Investments.

《财务建模精粹:驱动企业价值的智慧工具》 在瞬息万变的商业环境中,企业决策的成败与否,往往取决于其能否准确预测未来、评估风险并优化资源配置。而这一切的基石,正是强大的财务建模能力。《财务建模精粹》并非一本堆砌枯燥公式的教科书,而是一本深入浅出的实战指南,旨在赋能读者掌握构建、分析和解读复杂财务模型的核心技能,从而做出更明智、更具前瞻性的商业决策。 本书的独特之处在于,它将财务建模的理论知识与企业实际运作紧密结合,通过详实的案例分析和循序渐进的步骤指导,引领读者一步步走向财务建模的精通之路。我们摒弃了空泛的概念,专注于实用性的技巧和方法,让每一位读者都能在掌握核心概念的同时,快速将所学应用于实际工作中,提升职业竞争力。 第一部分:构建稳固的财务模型基础 任何宏伟建筑的落成,都离不开坚实的地基。在本书的第一部分,我们将为您打下坚实的财务建模基础。 理解模型的核心要素: 我们将从最基本的概念入手,深入剖析财务模型为何如此重要,以及它在企业运营中的多重角色。您将了解到,财务模型并非仅仅是数字的堆砌,而是企业战略、运营和财务状况的数字化映射,是理解企业过去、预测未来、驱动决策的逻辑框架。我们将细致讲解模型的核心组成部分,包括收入预测、成本估算、资本支出规划、营运资本管理、融资假设以及关键财务报表(损益表、资产负债表、现金流量表)之间的相互关联。理解这些要素的动态平衡,是构建有效模型的第一步。 数据收集与整理的艺术: 准确的数据是模型可靠性的生命线。本书将详细阐述如何从企业内部和外部渠道系统地收集所需数据,并教授您如何对这些数据进行有效的清洗、验证和组织。我们将探讨不同类型数据的来源,例如历史财务报表、销售数据、生产成本、市场调研报告、宏观经济指标等,并提供实用的数据处理技巧,以确保模型的输入具有高度的准确性和一致性。我们将强调数据质量控制的重要性,因为“垃圾进,垃圾出”是财务建模中不可忽视的铁律。 Excel建模的必备技能: 微软Excel作为全球最广泛使用的电子表格软件,无疑是财务建模最强大的工具。本书将系统性地介绍Excel在财务建模中的关键功能和高级技巧。您将学习如何熟练运用公式和函数(如SUM, AVERAGE, IF, VLOOKUP, INDEX/MATCH, SUMIFS等),掌握条件格式、数据验证、名称管理器等功能,以及如何构建清晰、易于理解的电子表格结构。我们将着重讲解如何通过有效的单元格命名、颜色编码和逻辑分组,来提升模型的透明度和可维护性。即使您对Excel的掌握程度不高,本书也能帮助您快速提升技能,成为Excel建模的行家里手。 模型的关键假设设定: 财务模型是基于一系列假设构建的,这些假设的合理性直接决定了模型的预测力和决策的有效性。我们将深入探讨如何识别、量化和验证模型中的关键假设,例如销售增长率、利润率、通货膨胀率、利率、折旧率、税率等。本书将引导您思考不同假设背后的逻辑支撑,并学习如何根据历史数据、行业趋势和专家判断,来设定审慎而富有洞察力的假设。我们还将讨论敏感性分析和场景分析如何在一定程度上缓解假设不确定性带来的风险。 第二部分:驱动企业价值的建模应用 掌握了基础之后,我们将进入本书的核心内容——如何运用财务模型来驱动企业价值的提升。 战略规划与业务预测: 战略的成功在于前瞻性。本书将详细展示如何利用财务模型来支持企业战略的制定和执行。您将学习如何构建不同战略情景下的财务预测,例如新产品发布、市场扩张、兼并收购、成本削减等,并评估这些战略对企业盈利能力、现金流和股东价值的影响。我们将通过具体的案例,演示如何将企业的战略目标转化为可量化的财务指标,并利用模型进行迭代优化,以期找到最优的战略路径。 投资评估与资本配置: 资本是企业的血液,高效的资本配置是企业成功的关键。本书将深入探讨如何运用财务模型进行投资项目的评估,包括净现值(NPV)、内部收益率(IRR)、投资回收期等经典估值方法的应用。您将学习如何构建详尽的现金流模型,准确估算项目的初始投资、运营现金流和终值,并进行风险调整。本书还将指导您如何利用模型来优化企业的资本结构,平衡债务和股权融资,以降低融资成本,提升股东回报。 并购(M&A)与估值建模: 并购活动是企业实现跨越式发展的重要途径。本书将为您揭示并购交易中财务建模的精髓。您将学习如何构建目标公司的估值模型,包括 DCF(现金流折现法)、可比公司分析(Trading Comps)和先例交易分析(Transaction Comps)等常用估值方法。我们将详细介绍如何进行协同效应的量化,以及如何构建合并后的财务模型,以评估并购交易的财务可行性和对买卖双方股东价值的影响。 风险管理与敏感性分析: 商业世界充满不确定性,风险管理是企业生存和发展的重中之重。本书将重点介绍财务模型在风险管理中的作用。您将学习如何运用敏感性分析来识别影响模型结果的关键变量,并理解不同变量的变动对企业财务状况的潜在影响。我们将演示如何进行场景分析,构建乐观、中性和悲观等不同情景下的财务预测,从而评估企业在不同市场环境下的韧性。通过这些分析,您可以提前识别潜在风险,并制定相应的应对策略。 绩效评估与目标设定: 持续的绩效评估是企业不断进步的驱动力。本书将指导您如何利用财务模型来设定可衡量的绩效目标,并跟踪实际经营结果与模型预测的偏差。您将学习如何分析导致偏差的原因,并根据实际情况调整模型和经营策略。本书还将探讨如何利用模型来评估管理层的绩效,以及如何将财务模型应用于企业内部的预算管理和滚动预测流程。 第三部分:进阶建模技巧与前沿展望 在掌握了财务建模的核心技能后,本书还将带您探索更高级的建模技巧,并展望财务建模的未来发展。 动态建模与集成模型: 随着企业规模和复杂性的增加,静态模型已难以满足需求。本书将介绍如何构建动态的、可交互的集成财务模型。您将学习如何将不同的模型模块(如销售、生产、人力资源、研发等)有机地集成在一起,实现数据的无缝流动和逻辑的相互印证。我们将探讨如何设计清晰的用户界面,使模型更易于使用和理解,并能够快速响应不同的输入和假设变化。 财务建模的自动化与效率提升: 提高效率是现代企业运营的关键。本书将探讨如何通过宏、VBA(Visual Basic for Applications)等工具,以及与其他系统(如ERP系统)的集成,来自动化财务建模的重复性任务,显著提升建模效率。您将了解如何编写简单的宏来简化数据导入、报表生成和模型验证等过程,从而将更多精力投入到模型的分析和解读上。 数据可视化与沟通: 再好的模型,如果不能有效地传达其洞察,其价值将大打折扣。本书将强调数据可视化在财务建模中的重要性。您将学习如何利用Excel图表、条件格式以及更专业的BI(商业智能)工具,将复杂的财务数据和模型结果以直观、易懂的方式呈现出来。我们将提供实用的技巧,帮助您创建引人入胜的图表和仪表盘,以清晰地沟通您的分析结果,并说服决策者。 财务建模的伦理考量与最佳实践: 财务建模的力量越大,其责任也越大。本书将引导您关注财务建模中的伦理问题,包括模型的透明度、假设的公正性以及预测的审慎性。我们将强调建立清晰的模型文档,进行独立的模型审计,以及在沟通过程中诚实地披露模型的局限性和不确定性。掌握这些最佳实践,是成为一名负责任和值得信赖的财务建模专家的必备素质。 财务建模的未来趋势: 随着人工智能、机器学习和大数据技术的飞速发展,财务建模领域也在不断演进。本书将展望财务建模的未来趋势,包括如何利用AI辅助预测,如何构建更复杂的预测模型,以及如何将财务建模与更广泛的数据分析相结合,以应对日益复杂的商业挑战。 《财务建模精粹:驱动企业价值的智慧工具》 旨在成为您在财务建模旅程中最可靠的伙伴。无论您是初入职场的分析师,还是经验丰富的财务高管,本书都将为您提供宝贵的知识和实用的工具,帮助您驾驭复杂的财务世界,做出更明智的决策,最终驱动企业实现可持续的价值增长。本书不仅仅是一本读物,更是一次赋能,一次通往卓越财务领导力的变革之旅。

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这本书的深度和广度真是让人眼前一亮。我原以为它会是一本偏向基础理论的入门读物,但读下来才发现,作者在构建模型和应用实战方面有着非常独到的见解。尤其是在现金流折现(DCF)模型的构建上,它没有停留在教科书式的简单介绍,而是深入探讨了如何处理各种复杂的现实情况,比如周期性资本支出、营运资本的动态变化,以及如何将不确定性融入到基础模型中。书中的案例分析尤其出色,不是那种空泛的理论堆砌,而是紧密结合了实际企业财务报表中的数据,手把手地教你如何将Excel的强大功能发挥到极致,实现真正有洞察力的财务预测。对于那些希望从“会做报表”迈向“会用模型驱动决策”的专业人士来说,这本书提供了极佳的路线图。它教会你如何搭建一个健壮、灵活且易于审计的金融模型,这在日常工作中是至关重要的技能。

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我接触过不少关于金融建模的书籍,但坦白说,大部分都显得有些陈旧或者过于侧重于某些特定行业。然而,这本著作的视角却非常开阔,它不仅仅局限于传统的估值领域,而是将企业融资、资本预算和风险评估等多个关键职能有机地整合在“建模”这一核心框架下。作者在讲解如何利用敏感性分析和情景模拟来量化管理层的决策风险时,逻辑清晰得令人叹服。我特别欣赏作者在讲解边际贡献和边际税率如何影响长期价值创造时所采用的精妙代数推导,这使得复杂的概念变得直观易懂。它不仅仅是一本“操作手册”,更像是一本“思维指南”,指导读者如何从财务数据的表象深入到驱动企业价值的核心机制,非常适合那些渴望提升战略财务思维的读者,它提升的不仅仅是你的Excel技能,更是你的商业洞察力。

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这本书的阅读体验出乎意料地流畅,尽管主题非常专业。很多技术性的金融书籍往往会因为冗长和晦涩的术语而劝退读者,但这里的作者似乎深谙如何以一种清晰、有条理的方式呈现复杂信息。例如,在讲解如何将杠杆和非杠杆现金流进行有效分离,并正确应用加权平均资本成本(WACC)时,作者采用了分步解析的方法,每一步都有明确的理由和财务学基础支撑。对我个人而言,最价值连城的部分是关于“预留期”和“终止值”的计算方法论探讨,它细致地比较了永续增长法与退出倍数法的优劣及其适用边界,这在我以往的工作中一直是个模糊地带。读完这部分内容,我感觉自己在进行长期项目评估时,信心大增,不再是简单地套用公式,而是真正理解了背后的经济逻辑。

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与其他侧重于金融工程或纯粹会计处理的书籍相比,这本书的重点明显更偏向于“决策支持系统”的构建。作者花费了大量篇幅讨论如何设计一个“用户友好”的模型,这意味着模型不仅要数学上正确,还要在业务层面易于理解和迭代。书中关于如何设计输入变量的清晰度、如何利用数据透视表和图表清晰地展示模型结果的章节,简直是实战的宝典。我尤其赞赏作者对“模型维护成本”和“假设的透明度”的强调,这反映出作者对模型在真实企业环境中长期生存的深刻理解。很多模型在初始建立时很完美,但随着时间推移和管理层变动而变得僵化,这本书提供的框架有效避免了这种情况,确保了模型的生命力和可信度。

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如果你想找一本能让你对公司财务健康状况进行“深度体检”的书,那么这本书绝对是首选。它不满足于仅仅计算净现值(NPV)或内部收益率(IRR),而是将这些指标置于更宏大的企业战略背景下进行考察。书中关于如何处理折旧与摊销的税盾效应,以及如何精确计算剩余经济增加值(EVA)的建模技巧,非常精妙且实用。特别是关于流动性风险和营运资本周转速度对模型稳定性的影响分析,给出了非常具体和可操作的建模建议。这本书的价值在于,它将晦涩的财务理论转化成了可以被量化、预测和管理的具体工具,对于希望在并购尽职调查或内部投资评估中掌握主动权的财务专业人士来说,这是一本不可或缺的工具箱。

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