The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics

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辜朝明,日本首屈一指的证券公司——野村证券旗下的研究机构野村综合研究所的首席经济学家,连续近10年被日本资本和金融市场人士选为最受信赖的经济学家之一,并为日本历届首相就如何应对日本经济与银行问题提供咨询。

进入野村证券之前,他作为经济学家任职于纽约联邦储备银行,获得过美国联邦储备委员会理事会博士会员的荣誉。他著述良多,同时也是早稻田大学客座教授,2001年被美国商业经济学会授予艾布拉姆逊奖。他同时还是“商业周刊在线”的专栏作家以及日本内阁防务战略会议的唯一一位非日本籍委员。

出版者:Wiley
作者:Richard C. Koo
出品人:
页数:300
译者:
出版时间:2008-07-15
价格:USD 34.95
装帧:Hardcover
isbn号码:9780470823873
丛书系列:
图书标签:
  • 经济学 
  • 日本 
  • 经济 
  • 金融 
  • 宏观经济 
  • 经济史 
  • 经济危机 
  • 日本经济 
  •  
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Japan's "Great Recession" lasted from approximately 1992 - 2007 and finally provided the economics profession with the necessary background to understand what actually happened during the US recession of the 1930s. The discoveries made, however, are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macro economic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. In particular, Japan's Great Recession showed that when faced with a massive fall in asset prices, companies typically jettison the conventional goal of profit maximization and move to minimize debt in order to restore their credit ratings. This shift in corporate priority, however, has huge theoretical as well as practical implications and opens up a whole new field of study. For example, the new insight can explain fully the precise mechanism of prolonged depression and liquidity trap which conventional economics - based on corporate profit maximization - has so far failed to offer as a convincing explanation. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory, i.e., the Holy Grail of macro economics The policy implication of this new discovery is immense in that the conventional aversion to fiscal policy in favor of monetary policy will have to be completely reversed when the economy is in the yin phase. The theoretical implications are also immense in the sense that the economics profession will no longer have to rely so much on various rigidities to explain recessions that have become the standard practice within the so-called New Keynesian economics of the last twenty years.

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除了1929年那次大衰退,上世纪与之最接近的可以算90年代日本的金融泡沫破裂。野村证券的辜朝明通篇提出的唯一观点:经济周期分为阴和阳两个阶段,中国人看了会比较亲切,在阳的阶段,企业以利润最大化为目的;在阴的阶段,企业以负债最小化为目的。货币政策在阳的阶段是有效用...  

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有很多启发。目前中国有能力说服银行业不顾自身安危,不采取平衡资产负债表的方式,无效率的扩张信贷规模。但企业和居民的借贷意愿下降情况下,货币需求减弱,这种扩大货币供应的方式是否能够奏效,值得观察。如果中国发生“资产负债表衰退”,降息也不能带来经济的复苏。 但...  

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财政刺激这种手段人尽皆知,但大部分国家选择不使用它自有理由。 作者对日本经济复兴的信心在今天看来实在有些不着边际,资产负债对于企业和个人不仅仅是银行账户上数字的变化,在尽力偿还债务时不可避免的会减少其他方面的投入,这会实实在在的损害企业与个人在国际市场上的竞...  

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财政刺激这种手段人尽皆知,但大部分国家选择不使用它自有理由。 作者对日本经济复兴的信心在今天看来实在有些不着边际,资产负债对于企业和个人不仅仅是银行账户上数字的变化,在尽力偿还债务时不可避免的会减少其他方面的投入,这会实实在在的损害企业与个人在国际市场上的竞...  

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作者提出了“资产负债表衰退”和“企业以负债最小化”的概念,并且对90年后日本衰退进行了分析,肯定了财政政策的有效性。整本数观点新颖,逻辑严密,值得一读。  

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神作!神作!神作!

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有趣,微观扩去宏观的论点

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神作

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I have read and researched extensively in the field of Macro Economics. What I have in mind is to have a framework to integrate elements concerning real economy and financial markets, designs of monetary and financial hierarchy, global money flow, roles of different currencies, and impacts on risk premiums by various monetary and fiscal policies, e

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