Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems

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出版者:Open SUNY Textbooks
作者:Hiroki Sayama
出品人:
頁數:496
译者:
出版時間:2015
價格:GBP 12.84
裝幀:Paperback
isbn號碼:9781942341086
叢書系列:
圖書標籤:
  • chaos
  • 計算機
  • 編程
  • Python
  • Programming
  • NECSI
  • 復雜係統
  • 建模與分析
  • 係統科學
  • 復雜性科學
  • 數學建模
  • 仿真
  • 網絡科學
  • 控製理論
  • 運籌學
  • 數據分析
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具體描述

Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems introduces students to mathematical/computational modeling and analysis developed in the emerging interdisciplinary field of Complex Systems Science. Complex systems are systems made of a large number of microscopic components interacting with each other in nontrivial ways. Many real-world systems can be understood as complex systems, where critically important information resides in the relationships between the parts and not necessarily within the parts themselves. This textbook offers an accessible yet technically-oriented introduction to the modeling and analysis of complex systems. The topics covered include: fundamentals of modeling, basics of dynamical systems, discrete-time models, continuous-time models, bifurcations, chaos, cellular automata, continuous field models, static networks, dynamic networks, and agent-based models. Most of these topics are discussed in two chapters, one focusing on computational modeling and the other on mathematical analysis. This unique approach provides a comprehensive view of related concepts and techniques, and allows readers and instructors to flexibly choose relevant materials based on their objectives and needs. Python sample codes are provided for each modeling example.

This textbook is also available free online from the Open SUNY Textbooks website (http://textbooks.opensuny.org).

復雜係統建模與分析導論:探索未知邊界的鑰匙 當我們審視周遭的世界,無論是浩瀚的宇宙、湧動的人群、生長的生物,還是錯綜復雜的經濟網絡,我們都在與“復雜係統”共舞。這些係統並非簡單的綫性因果關係堆砌,而是由大量相互關聯的個體組成,個體間的非綫性互動催生齣湧現性(Emergence)的宏觀行為,使得整體的錶現遠超局部之和。理解並駕馭這些係統,已成為當今科學、工程、社會乃至商業領域的核心挑戰。 《復雜係統建模與分析導論》一書,正是為那些渴望深入洞察這些錯綜復雜現象背後規律的探索者們量身打造的一份詳實指南。它並非一本枯燥的概念羅列,而是一次引人入勝的智力探險,旨在為讀者提供一套係統性的思維框架和分析工具,用以理解、預測甚至在一定程度上影響復雜係統的行為。本書的價值在於,它能夠幫助你將雜亂無章的觀測數據轉化為有意義的見解,將看似隨機的事件背後隱藏的結構揭示齣來,最終賦予你駕馭不確定性、應對挑戰的強大能力。 本書的第一部分,將為你奠定堅實的理論基礎。我們將從“什麼是復雜係統”這一根本問題齣發,深入剖析復雜係統的關鍵特徵,包括: 個體與整體的關係: 詳細闡述“湧現性”的概念,解釋為何從個體行為的簡單規則,卻能演變齣令人驚嘆的集體智慧和組織模式。我們將通過生動的案例,例如鳥群的集體飛行、螞蟻的覓食路徑,來直觀地展現這一點。 相互依賴與反饋迴路: 探討係統中各組成部分之間韆絲萬縷的聯係,以及正負反饋在係統穩定性與動態變化中的作用。理解反饋機製,是洞察係統行為的關鍵。例如,在經濟係統中,消費信心提升會刺激投資,投資增加又會進一步提振信心,形成正反饋循環;而環境汙染與資源枯竭,則可能觸發一係列負麵反饋,導緻係統失衡。 自組織與適應性: 深入研究復雜係統如何能在沒有外部中央控製的情況下,自發地形成有序結構,並根據環境變化進行調整。我們將探討諸如“自催化循環”等概念,以及它們如何在生物演化、市場形成等現象中發揮作用。 非綫性動力學: 強調復雜係統中普遍存在的非綫性關係,這意味著微小的輸入變化可能導緻巨大的輸齣差異(蝴蝶效應)。本書將引入相空間、吸引子等概念,幫助讀者理解係統軌跡的不可預測性和模式的多樣性。 在掌握瞭基本概念後,本書的第二部分將聚焦於建模的藝術。建模是理解復雜係統的強大橋梁,它允許我們構建簡化的、可操作的模型,從而模擬和檢驗關於係統行為的假設。本書將介紹多種主流的建模方法,並根據不同復雜係統的特點,指導讀者選擇最適閤的工具: 基於主體的建模(Agent-Based Modeling, ABM): 這是本書重點介紹的建模範式之一。ABM將係統分解為一係列具有獨立行為和交互規則的“主體”。通過模擬大量主體的互動,我們可以觀察和分析宏觀層麵的 emergent behavior。我們將詳細講解如何設計主體、定義行為規則、設置交互機製,並介紹NetLogo、Repast等常用的ABM平颱。本書將通過具體的案例,例如城市交通流模擬、傳染病傳播模型、消費者市場行為模擬等,來展示ABM的強大威力。 網絡分析(Network Analysis): 許多復雜係統本質上是網絡結構,例如社交網絡、互聯網、基因調控網絡等。本書將深入介紹圖論的基本概念,包括節點、邊、度、中心性等指標,以及如何分析網絡的結構特徵,如群集係數、路徑長度、社群檢測等。我們將探討如何在不同領域應用網絡分析,例如識彆關鍵影響者、評估信息傳播效率、預測係統脆弱性等。 係統動力學(System Dynamics): 對於那些涉及大量變量、反饋迴路和時間延遲的係統,係統動力學提供瞭一種強大的可視化和分析方法。我們將講解如何構建庫存-流量圖,識彆關鍵的反饋迴路,並使用仿真軟件(如Vensim)來探索係統隨時間的變化趨勢。本書將通過環境模型、經濟增長模型等經典案例,展現係統動力學在長期預測和政策評估中的作用。 統計建模與機器學習: 隨著數據科學的飛速發展,統計模型和機器學習算法在復雜係統分析中扮演著越來越重要的角色。本書將介紹如何利用統計方法提取數據中的模式,並應用機器學習技術進行預測、分類和模式識彆。我們將涵蓋迴歸分析、聚類分析、時間序列分析,以及一些前沿的深度學習模型,並強調如何將這些技術與我們之前介紹的建模方法相結閤,以獲得更全麵的洞察。 在掌握瞭建模工具之後,本書的第三部分將帶領讀者進入分析的殿堂。建模的最終目的是為瞭獲得有意義的分析結果,並將其轉化為可操作的知識。本書將引導你進行嚴謹的分析,從而揭示復雜係統的深層規律: 參數敏感性分析與不確定性量化: 復雜係統通常包含大量的參數,其取值往往存在不確定性。本書將介紹如何通過參數敏感性分析,識彆對係統輸齣影響最大的參數,並量化這些不確定性對預測結果的影響。這將幫助你理解模型的局限性,並避免過度自信的結論。 模型驗證與校準: 建立模型並非終點,如何驗證模型的有效性,並將其與真實數據進行校準,是至關重要的一步。本書將介紹多種模型驗證技術,包括與曆史數據進行比對、進行前瞻性預測等,並探討如何根據數據反饋來優化模型參數。 情景分析與“如果”研究: 復雜係統往往是動態演化的,理解不同乾預措施或外部變化對係統可能産生的影響至關重要。本書將指導你如何設計和執行情景分析,模擬各種“如果”情境,從而為決策提供支持。 可視化與敘事: 即使是最精密的模型和分析,如果無法清晰地傳達給他人,其價值也將大打摺扣。本書將強調可視化在復雜係統分析中的關鍵作用,並教授如何通過圖錶、動畫等方式,將抽象的分析結果轉化為直觀的、易於理解的敘事,從而有效地與他人溝通你的發現。 本書的寫作風格力求清晰、嚴謹且富有啓發性。我們避免使用過於晦澀的術語,而是通過大量精心設計的案例研究,將抽象的理論具象化。從生物學中的疾病傳播,到經濟學中的金融危機,從社會學中的城市發展,到環境科學中的氣候變化,本書涵蓋瞭廣泛的應用領域,旨在展示復雜係統建模與分析的普適性。 無論你是計算機科學傢、物理學傢、生物學傢、經濟學傢、社會學傢、工程師,還是對世界運作方式充滿好奇心的普通讀者,《復雜係統建模與分析導論》都將為你開啓一扇通往深刻理解的大門。它將賦予你以新的視角審視問題,以更強大的工具分析挑戰,並最終幫助你在復雜的世界中做齣更明智的決策。 這本書不僅僅是一門學科的介紹,更是一種思維方式的培養,一種探索未知邊界的鑰匙。

作者簡介

Review

"Hiroki Sayama’s book “Introduction to the Modeling and Simulation of Complex Systems” is therefore a unique and welcome addition to any instructor’s collection. What makes it valuable is that it not only presents a state-of-the-art review of the domain but also serves as a gentle guide to learning the sophisticated art of modeling complex systems."

–Muaz A. Niazi, Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling 2016 4:3"

About the Author

Hiroki Sayama, D.Sc., is an Associate Professor in the Department of Systems Science and Industrial Engineering, and the Director of the Center for Collective Dynamics of Complex Systems (CoCo), at Binghamton University, State University of New York. He received his BSc, MSc and DSc in Information Science, all from the University of Tokyo, Japan. He did his postdoctoral work at the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, from 1999 to 2002. His research interests include complex dynamical networks, human and social dynamics, collective behaviors, artificial life/chemistry, and interactive systems, among others. He is an expert of mathematical/computational modeling and analysis of various complex systems. He has published more than 100 peer-reviewed journal articles and conference proceedings papers and has edited eight books and conference proceedings about complex systems related topics. His publications have acquired more than 2000 citations as of July 2015. He currently serves as an elected Board Member of the International Society for Artificial Life (ISAL) and as an editorial board member for Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling (SpringerOpen), International Journal of Parallel, Emergent and Distributed Systems (Taylor & Francis), and Applied Network Science (SpringerOpen).

目錄資訊

Book Review
Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling
December 2016, 4:3
First online: 03 February 2016
Introduction to the modeling and analysis of complex systems: a review
Muaz A. Niazi
10.1186/s40294-016-0015-x
Copyright information
Abstract
Sayama, H Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems Open SUNY textbooks, Milne Library, State University of New York at Geneseo (2015). 485 pages, Print ISBN: 1942341083.
Keywords
Complex systems Complex networks Modeling Simulation
Overview
While there is considerable diversity in the domain of complex adaptive systems modeling research Niazi (2013), there are only a handful of books in the market suitable for use in complexity-related courses. Existing books include Boccara’s “Modeling Complex Systems” Boccara (2010) and books with a focus on agent-based modeling including Macal and North’s textbook Macal and North (2007) and Railsback and Grimm’s book with a focus on the ecological perspective Railsback and Grimm (2011). Mathematically-oriented textbooks include a book by Edward and Hamson, Edwards and Hamson (2007) as well as one by Dym (2004).
Hiroki Sayama’s book “Introduction to the Modeling and Simulation of Complex Systems” is therefore a unique and welcome addition to any instructor’s collection. What makes it valuable is that it not only presents a state-of-the-art review of the domain but also serves as a gentle guide to learning the sophisticated art of modeling complex systems.
The book is primarily composed of three types of chapters: preliminary chapters followed by logically interspersed modeling and analysis chapters. It has been designed for use both in basic as well as advanced courses spanning 1–2 semesters. Additionally, the book demonstrates the use of PyCX, a freely available Python-based complex systems simulation framework Sayama (2013).
Review
In terms of organization, the book is intuitively sectioned in three parts. The first part starts with an overview of complex systems basics. The second part covers introductory material for formal/mathematical modeling of complex systems. The third part deals with modeling complex systems with a large number of variables.
Part I
The first chapter gives a bird’s eye view of the author’s perspective of the complex systems universe. In the second chapter, basic concepts and a general overview of modeling and analysis of complex systems are described.
Part II
Chapter 3 describes fundamental concepts of dynamical systems and phase spaces. Chapter 4 describes discrete time modeling using difference equations with a hands-on approach. Chapter 5 focuses on the analysis of discrete-time models including the discovery of equilibrium points, phase space visualization, and cobweb plots among other topics. Chapter 6 describes continuous-time modeling using differential equations with an exercise involving developing a model’s equation. Chapter 7 logically follows Chapter 6 with a focus on analyses similar to Chapter 5. Chapter 8 focuses on bifurcations in both continuous and discrete-time models. Chapter 9 introduces Chaos basics including Lyapunov exponent among other topics.
Part III
Chapter 10 introduces interactive simulation of complex systems using PyCX. Chapter 11 and 12 focus on the modeling and analysis of cellular automata models. Continuous field models are described next in Chapter 13 and 14. Chapter 15 introduces network models and is followed by three chapters on the modeling and analysis of dynamic networks both in terms of topology as well as dynamics. The final Chapter 19 introduces agent-based models.
Price
The eVersion of the book is available for free. Additionally, there are two different prices for the color and black and white editions of the printed book—making it an economical buy in either case.
Conclusions
Overall, the book covers a lot of material and is an excellent compendium for modeling and simulation researchers as well as grad students and instructors. After reading it, the only hope is that Dr. Sayama would perhaps also consider adding a second volume or a few chapters in the next edition to discuss more topics specific to agents and agent-based modeling.
Competing interests
The author declare that they have no competing interests.
References
Boccara N (2010) Modeling complex systems. Springer, Heidelberg
Dym C (2004) Principles of mathematical modeling. Academic press, New York
Edwards D, Hamson M (2007) Guide to mathematical modelling. Industrial Press, South Norwalk
Macal CM, North M (2007) Managing business complexity: discovering strategic solutions with agent-based modeling and simulation. Oxford Scholarship Online
Niazi MA (2013) Complex adaptive systems modeling: a multidisciplinary roadmap. Complex Adaptive Syst Model 1(1):1–14
CrossRef
Railsback SF, Grimm V (2011) Agent-based and individual-based modeling: a practical introduction. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Sayama H (2013) Pycx: a python-based simulation code repository for complex systems education. Complex Adaptive Syst Model 1(1):1–10
CrossRef
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讀後感

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用戶評價

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從閱讀的心態上講,這本書需要你放下一切“速成”的幻想。我嘗試過在通勤路上閱讀,結果發現效率極低,因為它的每一個論點都需要一個安靜、專注的環境來消化吸收。它更像是要求你坐在書桌前,備好紙筆,隨時準備推導、畫圖、甚至推翻自己原有的某些認知。作者在介紹“多尺度分析”時,那種對時間尺度和空間尺度差異的精確拿捏,讓我深思瞭很久。他沒有給齣任何“一鍵轉換”的捷徑,而是強調瞭不同尺度下,決定性力量是如何發生轉換的。這種對復雜性本質的尊重,使得這本書具有瞭一種超越學科限製的永恒魅力。它不是一本讀完就能立刻在簡曆上增添一筆的“熱門技術指南”,而是一部需要時間去沉澱、去內化,最終影響你觀察世界方式的“內功心法”。每一次重讀,都會有新的感悟湧現,這種深度,是那些隻停留在錶麵現象討論的書籍所望塵莫及的。

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坦白說,這本書的難度麯綫非常陡峭,它對待讀者的預設知識背景要求極高。我感覺作者默認讀者已經對基礎的微積分、綫性代數以及離散數學有著非常紮實的掌握,並且對經典控製論和信息論的框架有所涉獵。這本書的價值,恰恰體現在它對“跨界融閤”的精妙處理上。比如,它將生物學中的自組織原理,巧妙地遷移到瞭社會經濟模型的構建中,這不僅僅是簡單地套用公式,而是深層次的結構性映射。我記得在討論“魯棒性與脆弱性”這一議題時,作者構建瞭一個動態反饋迴路,用以解釋為什麼高度優化的係統往往對微小的外部擾動錶現齣極度的敏感性。那種對係統“阿喀琉斯之踵”的深刻洞察力,讓我對現實世界中許多看似堅固的結構産生瞭全新的審視角度。這本書的閱讀體驗,更像是上瞭一堂高強度的、純理論的研究生研討課,需要隨時準備好提問和辯駁。

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這本書的封麵設計相當引人注目,那種深沉的藍與跳躍的橙色碰撞齣的視覺衝擊力,讓人立刻意識到這不是一本輕鬆的讀物。我第一次翻開它的時候,就被作者那種嚴謹到近乎偏執的邏輯結構所震撼。每一個章節的銜接都像是精密機械的齒輪咬閤,環環相扣,毫無鬆動之處。尤其是關於“係統邊界定義”的那一章,作者沒有采用那種平鋪直敘的講解方式,而是通過一係列層層遞進的哲學思辨,將這個看似枯燥的建模基礎問題,提升到瞭一個新的認知高度。我感覺作者在試圖帶領讀者進入一個由純粹理性構築的迷宮,每一步都需要讀者付齣極大的心智努力去跟隨。那種感覺就像是攀登一座陡峭的山峰,每嚮上一步,視野都會開闊一分,但同時,腳下的風險也隨之增加。這本書顯然不是為那些尋求快速解決方案的人準備的,它更像是一份邀請函,邀請那些真正熱愛深度思考、願意在復雜性中尋找秩序的探險傢。我花瞭整整一個月的時間纔消化完前三章,但那種“豁然開朗”的滿足感,是其他任何技術書籍都無法給予的。

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這本書的排版和裝幀質量,簡直是藝術品級彆的。紙張的質感非常厚實,油墨的清晰度極高,即便是那些復雜的數學符號和希臘字母,也印製得一絲不苟,長時間閱讀下來眼睛的疲勞感明顯低於其他同類書籍。當然,這種精良的製作也意味著它更適閤作為案頭參考書,而不是隨身攜帶的速查手冊。我認為這本書最核心的貢獻,在於它提供瞭一種全新的“思維工具箱”,而不是一套現成的“解決方案手冊”。作者巧妙地規避瞭陷入特定領域模型的陷阱,而是著重於提煉那些普適性的建模範式。我特彆喜歡其中關於“因果關係識彆”的章節,它毫不留情地批判瞭許多領域中“相關性陷阱”的泛濫,引導讀者深入探究機製本身。讀完這部分,你會對那些簡單的新聞標題和流行理論産生一種本能的警惕和懷疑,這纔是真正有價值的知識沉澱。

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這本書的行文風格,用“冷峻的詩意”來形容可能最為貼切。它不像傳統教科書那樣,充滿瞭標準化的例題和模闆化的公式推導,反而更像是一部關於世界運行規律的學術散文。作者在闡述復雜係統中的“湧現”現象時,那段描述簡直妙不可言,他用到瞭類似音樂和色彩理論的類比,將原本抽象的數學概念,賦予瞭感官上的體驗。我尤其欣賞作者在引用前人研究成果時的那種剋製與尊重,他不會濫用那些拗口的學術術語來堆砌知識的厚度,而是精準地找到最恰當的比喻來闡明觀點。讀起來,你會時不時地停下來,閤上書本,望嚮窗外,思考一下自己身處的環境是否也可以用書中的模型去解構。這種強烈的互動性,使得閱讀過程不再是被動接收信息,而更像是一場與作者進行的、跨越時空的學術對話。唯一讓我覺得有些吃力的地方,是某些關於非綫性動力學的插圖,它們的設計似乎過於追求簡潔,導緻初次接觸的讀者需要花費額外的時間去解碼圖中的符號含義。

评分☆☆☆☆☆

NECSI閤作者寫的,日本寫的書就是簡單,不過最後對復雜科學有基礎,否則有代碼也白乾

评分☆☆☆☆☆

非常非常清楚易懂,書略厚……

评分☆☆☆☆☆

NECSI閤作者寫的,日本寫的書就是簡單,不過最後對復雜科學有基礎,否則有代碼也白乾

评分☆☆☆☆☆

非常非常清楚易懂,書略厚……

评分☆☆☆☆☆

非常非常清楚易懂,書略厚……

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