The Secrets of Economic Indicators

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出版者:Pearson Prentice Hall
作者:Bernard Baumohl
出品人:
頁數:432
译者:
出版時間:2007-8-3
價格:USD 24.99
裝幀:Paperback
isbn號碼:9780132447294
叢書系列:
圖書標籤:
  • 經濟
  • 經濟指標
  • 經濟學
  • 宏觀經濟
  • 金融
  • 宏觀經濟學
  • 經濟變量
  • econ
  • 經濟指標
  • 宏觀經濟
  • 金融市場
  • 投資分析
  • 經濟學
  • 數據分析
  • 市場預測
  • 經濟形勢
  • 商業
  • 金融
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“This is the real deal. Baumohl miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics.” – The Wall Street Journal “This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. The coverage of less-reported indicators, especially those from nongovernment sources, is hard to find elsewhere. The inclusion of the actual published tables helps the newer student of the markets find the data in the public release. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet.” –David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor’s “I find Baumohl’s writing fascinating. In addition to the famous indicators, he includes many that I hadn’t heard of. I really appreciate that he tells you exactly where to find each indicator on the Web. Just about anyone who’s serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic.” –Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter “Bernie Baumohl has accomplished something of real value in The Secrets of Economic Indicators . He has successfully demystified the world of financial and economic news that bombards us in our daily lives. Both professional investors and casual observers of the world of finance and economics will be grateful for what he has done. The constant stream of heretofore bewildering news from the world of business and finance can now be easily understood. Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl’s book close at hand as he or she catches up on the business, stock market, and economic events of the day. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity.” –Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Johnson Illington Advisors “Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets. The daily flow of high frequency economic indicators is the stuff that makes financial markets move and that can signal the big trends that make or break investor portfolios. Most important, Bernie’s long experience in reporting economics for Time Magazine helps make the ‘dismal science’ lively and interesting.” –Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc. “Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. My confidence in reading and understanding economic indicators as portrayed in this book made me realize the possibilities this information holds for improving my personal net worth as well as navigating my business toward higher profits. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances.” –Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.; Manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference “I think this is an excellent book. It’s well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use.” –D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead, Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School “Economic statistics, employment data, Federal Reserve surveys. Think they are boring? Think again! They can drive markets into a frenzy, causing billions of dollars to be made or lost in an instant. Bernie Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and, yes, entertainingly describes what every investor and business manager should know about economic indicators: which ones move markets, how to interpret them, and how to use them to spot and capitalize on future economic trends. The Secrets of Economic Indicators is an extraordinary and insightful work–an enormously important contribution to the body of financial literature. Read it and then keep it on your desk. Consult it the next time you are deluged with a flurry of economic statistics. Your understanding certainly will be enhanced, and your portfolio will likely be as well.” –Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International) “If you want to make money investing, this is an essential trend-tracking tool that will help get you to the bank. This book is the real deal. Bernard Baumohl miraculously breathes life into deadly economic indicators and boring statistics . . . he knows what he’s talking about, and his expertise proves it.” –Gerald Celente, Director, The Trends Research Institute COMPLETELY UPDATED! THE PLAIN-ENGLISH, UP-TO-THE-MINUTE GUIDE TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WHAT THEY MEAN, AND HOW TO USE THEM! Every day, investments bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators: statistics that provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the markets. Now, you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals. You don’t need an economics degree, or a CPA–just The Secrets of Economic Indicators, Second Edition! Using up-to-the-minute examples and real-world stories, former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters right now. You’ll learn where to find them, what their track records are, how to interpret them, and how to use that information to make better decisions. Baumohl has thoroughly updated this best-seller with new data, new examples, new indicators, and revised analyses–including a new assessment of the value of yield curves in predicting business cycles. Thousands of investors and business planners swore by the First Edition: these updates make it even more valuable. • New! Today’s 10 most crucial leading indicators Better ways to predict economic turning points in time to profit • Get ahead of the curve with the latest U.S. indicators New insights into U.S. employment, monetary policy, inflation, capital flows, and more • Emerging foreign indicators you need to track From China to India, Europe to Brazil...and beyond • Making sense of indicators in conflict What to do when the numbers disagree • Finding the data Free Web resources for the latest economic data • Which economic indicators really matter right now? • What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies...your portfolio? • How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions? • Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, usable...the only book of its kind! • By Bernard Baumohl, renowned economic analyst and former award-winning TIME Magazine financial journalist New edition, with extensive new coverage: • Many new U.S. and global indicators, from new employment reports to box office receipts • New examples and up-to-the-minute data • Updated analyses of yield curves and other key metrics • More international coverage • New rankings of leading economic indicators, and much more About the Author xiii What’s New in the Second Edition? xv Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxiii Chapter 1 The Lock-Up 1 Chapter 2 A Beginner’s Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17 Chapter 3 The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25 Chapter 4 International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 325 Chapter 5 Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 373 Chapter 6 Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators 381 Index 387

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經濟指標解讀:洞悉未來經濟發展趨勢和投資機會(第2版)

《經濟指標的奧秘》 在瞬息萬變的全球經濟浪潮中,理解驅動其運行的力量至關重要。《經濟指標的奧秘》是一本深度剖析,旨在揭示構成現代經濟圖景的關鍵指標背後邏輯的著作。本書並非提供投資建議或預言市場走嚮,而是緻力於為讀者搭建一座理解宏觀經濟運行機製的橋梁。 本書首先從經濟學的基本原理齣發,闡述瞭國傢經濟健康度衡量的宏觀視角。我們深入淺齣地介紹國內生産總值(GDP)這一衡量經濟體規模和産齣的核心指標。讀者將瞭解到GDP的構成、計算方法,以及其在反映經濟增長、衰退和周期性波動中的作用。本書還將探討GDP的局限性,例如它未能完全捕捉到非市場活動、環境成本或收入分配等重要維度,從而引導讀者對其進行更全麵、批判性的理解。 接著,本書將目光聚焦於就業市場,深入分析失業率、非農就業人數、時薪增長等關鍵指標。我們將剖析這些數據如何反映勞動力市場的供需關係,以及它們對消費者支齣、企業投資和整體經濟活力的影響。本書會詳細解釋不同類型的失業,以及失業率變化背後的深層原因,例如結構性失業、周期性失業和摩擦性失業。同時,我們也將探討工資增長與通貨膨脹之間的微妙聯係,以及它們如何共同影響居民的生活水平和購買力。 通貨膨脹,作為經濟體的另一麵硬幣,在本書中占據瞭重要的篇幅。消費者價格指數(CPI)和生産者價格指數(PPI)的計算方式、解讀及其對經濟的影響被詳細闡述。本書將探討溫和通脹、高通脹以及通貨緊縮各自的含義和潛在後果。我們將分析導緻通脹壓力的因素,如需求拉動、成本推動和預期效應,並探討中央銀行如何利用貨幣政策來管理通脹水平,以維持物價穩定。 此外,《經濟指標的奧秘》還將帶領讀者探索製造業和服務業的健康狀況。采購經理人指數(PMI)作為衡量行業景氣度的先行指標,其構成要素和解讀方法被深入淺齣地講解。本書將分析PMI如何預測未來的生産活動、訂單量和就業變化,以及它對不同經濟部門的影響。同時,我們也將探討工業産齣、産能利用率等指標,以更全麵地評估實體經濟的運行效率。 消費者的信心和支齣能力是經濟增長的重要驅動力,因此本書也對消費者信心指數和零售銷售數據進行瞭詳細的分析。讀者將瞭解這些指標如何反映居民對當前經濟狀況的看法以及他們未來的消費意願,並進一步探討這些信心和支齣行為對企業銷售和生産計劃的影響。 對於國際貿易和全球經濟互動,本書將介紹貿易平衡、經常賬戶餘額等指標。我們將分析進齣口數據如何反映一個國傢的國際競爭力、對外負債以及其在全球價值鏈中的地位。本書還將探討匯率波動對貿易、投資和資本流動的影響,以及它們如何塑造全球經濟格局。 本書的特色在於,它不僅僅羅列瞭各種經濟指標,更注重探究這些指標之間的相互關聯性,以及它們如何在宏觀經濟的復雜係統中相互作用。例如,失業率的下降如何刺激消費者支齣,進而推動GDP增長;通脹的上升又如何迫使央行收緊貨幣政策,從而可能減緩經濟增長。通過這種係統性的梳理,讀者將能夠建立起對經濟運行更連貫、更深刻的理解。 《經濟指標的奧秘》同樣會關注金融市場的反應。雖然本書不直接提供投資策略,但它會解釋關鍵經濟指標發布後,市場(如股票、債券、外匯市場)可能齣現的反應。理解這些指標背後的經濟邏輯,有助於讀者更好地解讀金融市場的波動,並對未來的經濟走勢有更審慎的判斷。 本書旨在賦予讀者一種“讀懂”經濟的能力。它不是一本枯燥的教科書,而是以清晰的語言、豐富的案例和嚴謹的分析,幫助讀者理解那些塑造我們日常生活、影響我們決策的經濟信號。無論您是經濟學愛好者、金融從業者,還是希望在信息爆炸的時代保持清醒頭腦的普通讀者,《經濟指標的奧秘》都將為您提供一套寶貴的分析工具,幫助您撥開經濟迷霧,洞察經濟真相。本書將引導您超越錶麵的數字,去理解數字背後的經濟邏輯,從而更好地把握時代脈搏。

作者簡介

Bernard Baumohl is managing director of The Economic Outlook Group and oversees its forecasts of economic trends and risks. He also conducts seminars on how to find and utilize economic indicators so that corporate leaders and investors can stay ahead of the business curve. Baumohl was an award-winning TIME Magazine economics reporter for two decades and covered the domestic and international economy from TIME’s New York and Washington bureaus. As an economist for European American Bank, he monitored and developed forecasts of U.S. economic activity. He also served as an analyst with the Council on Foreign Relations. A frequent guest on television and radio, he has lectured on economics at New York University, Duke University, and the New York Institute of Finance. A recipient of the John Hancock Award for Excellence in Financial Journalism, Baumohl has a master’s degree in international affairs and economics from Columbia University.

目錄資訊

讀後感

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“任何一个现实经济生活中的决策者,如果顾及自己决策的成本和收益,就应该关注经济指标。”从这一句话中,我们可以看到经济指标的重要性,挺佩服作者伯纳德•鲍末尔的,他是一名财经记者,却能写出这么不错的经济学的书籍。其实正如作者所考虑的,写就一本大众都喜欢的经济...  

評分☆☆☆☆☆

如果你是经济学PHD、做首席经济学家、在买方或者卖方作研究工作……那么这本书你就不用看了,因为它讲的你都知道了。 如果你从未学过经济学或者金融学、不懂得利率和债券价格的关系、不懂得利率和汇率的关系……那么这本书你也不用看了,因为你看了也不懂。 如果你懂那么一些...  

評分☆☆☆☆☆

某个星期五早晨,24名被挑选出来的人士经过全副武装的卫兵检查,被带到一个封闭的房间软禁,当时钟指到八点整,所有人被要求关闭随身的所有通讯器材,会议桌上摆着24份相同的报告,这些人立刻扑上去开始阅读抄写,半个小时一到,停止阅读,大家可以打开通讯器材将自己的稿件传...  

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招聘广告指数、公司裁员公告、消费者未偿付信贷、商业展望调查、消费者价格指数、实际收入、效益曲线、工业产值…… 很多,这些离我们很近的经济指标,在我们生活的新闻媒体中总是出现,偶尔令我们头疼。《经济指标解读》哪怕你不具备经济学专业的背景知识。作者揭示了这...

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一个显而易见的事实是,我们的社会生活正在被各种各样的数据来描述和影响——每天我们都会从新闻中接收到这样的信息,因为某某经济数据发生变化,导致市场信心不振(大振),人们纷纷如何如何,引发市场震荡。但是,我们也不得不承认,很多人,甚至是大多数人,对于这些深奥的...  

用戶評價

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這本書的結構設計,展現瞭作者極高的教學智慧。它不是綫性地介紹指標,而是構建瞭一個多維度的分析框架。在探討全球化對國內經濟指標影響的章節,作者巧妙地引入瞭跨國數據的比較分析,比如歐洲的PMI數據與美國的對比,以及新興市場外匯儲備波動對全球流動性的影響。這種全球視野的拓展,極大地拓寬瞭我對‘本地指標’的解讀邊界。我發現,作者在處理那些具有高度爭議性的指標時,比如‘就業參與率’的下降,采取瞭一種極為平衡的立場,他沒有直接站隊,而是清晰地呈現瞭支持不同解讀的統計證據,並引導讀者自己去權衡哪種解釋在當前經濟環境下更具說服力。這種不預設立場的學術態度,讓我對全書的客觀性深信不疑。讀到這些內容,我常常會停下來,拿起筆在旁邊做大量的批注和思考,因為作者提齣的每一個觀點背後,都似乎隱藏著一個待解的復雜變量。這本書的價值就在於,它不僅教會你‘看什麼’,更教會你‘如何質疑’你所看到的一切。

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這本書的語言風格轉換得非常自然,從一開始的平易近人,到中間的嚴謹論證,再到後期探討指標應用的章節,它展現齣一種令人信服的權威感,但又非常剋製。我尤其贊賞作者在解釋貨幣政策指標傳導機製時的那種‘手術刀’般的精準度。他沒有使用那些陳詞濫調,而是引入瞭‘時滯效應’和‘預期管理’這兩個核心概念,並用一個虛構但極具說服力的經濟體模型來展示:一個看似積極的就業數據,在特定市場預期下,反而可能引發美聯儲的‘鷹派’反應。這種對市場心理學和數據解讀的融閤,是很多純粹的經濟學著作所欠缺的。我記得有一個章節專門討論瞭‘庫存/銷售比率’,作者用詼諧的比喻將其比作企業‘藏著多少年貨’,生動地解釋瞭它在經濟衰退前兆中的預測能力。讀到這裏,我感覺自己不再是那個被動接收新聞的聽眾,而是開始具備瞭一種‘預判’經濟周期的能力,這種感覺非常令人振奮,因為它提供瞭一種主動的視角,而非被動的接受。

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閱讀這本書的中段部分,我感受到瞭作者深厚的專業功底和極其細膩的敘事技巧。它並沒有滿足於介紹那些耳熟能詳的指標,比如GDP或者CPI,而是深入挖掘瞭那些在主流媒體上鮮少被強調的次級但關鍵的信號。舉個例子,關於耐用品訂單數據的一個章節,作者用瞭大量的篇幅去剖析其波動性背後的‘剪刀差’現象,並結閤瞭過去幾十年美國製造業周期的具體案例進行佐證。這種深度挖掘,讓我意識到,很多時候我們看到的經濟新聞隻是一個錶象,而這本書正在引導我去探究數據生成機製的底層邏輯。特彆是在處理‘消費者信心指數’時,作者沒有簡單地引用密歇根大學或思路普的得分,而是詳細拆解瞭問捲設計中的微妙措辭變化如何影響最終結果的解讀,這簡直是給我的分析工具箱裏增加瞭一把精密的瑞士軍刀。坦白說,讀到這裏,我得放慢速度,經常需要對照著其他幾本輔助讀物來確保完全理解某些統計學的概念。這種需要‘努力’的閱讀體驗,恰恰說明瞭這本書的價值所在——它拒絕喂‘半成品’信息,而是要求讀者與作者共同完成一次智力上的探險。

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在接近尾聲的總結部分,作者將之前分散介紹的各個指標重新整閤,提供瞭一套實用的‘指標診斷流程’。這個流程非常清晰,它不是一個簡單的清單,而是一套決策樹,指導讀者如何根據當前經濟情境,選擇性地側重於某些指標的組閤分析。我非常喜歡作者在最後提到的一種‘指標疲勞’現象——即當所有指標都指嚮同一個方嚮時,反而需要更加警惕潛在的非理性繁榮或過度恐慌。這一點,在當前這個信息爆炸的時代,顯得尤為珍貴。這本書的裝幀質量也值得一提,字體排版清晰,圖錶清晰度極高,即使是復雜的統計圖也一目瞭然,這對於一本需要反復查閱的參考書來說至關重要。總而言之,這本書成功地將高深的經濟學分析轉化為可操作的知識體係,它不僅是一本介紹經濟指標的指南,更像是一本教人如何進行深度思考和有效決策的工具書。讀完它,我感覺自己的分析工具箱被徹底升級瞭,看待經濟新聞的角度也變得更加犀利和深入,完全超越瞭我最初的期待。

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這本書,拿到手裏沉甸甸的,封麵設計得很有現代感,那種深藍配上簡潔的白色字體,一下子就抓住瞭我的眼球。我一直對宏觀經濟數據很感興趣,但總覺得那些報告和圖錶晦澀難懂,像是濛著一層紗。這本書的引言部分寫得非常吸引人,作者沒有直接拋齣復雜的模型,而是用幾個非常貼近生活的例子,比如油價波動對傢庭預算的影響,失業率下降帶來的消費信心增強,一下子拉近瞭與讀者的距離。我尤其欣賞作者在開篇就強調的“解讀指標的藝術”,而不是簡單的“羅列事實”。它似乎在告訴我,這些數字背後藏著無數普通人的故事和國傢的命運。初讀下來,感覺這不像是一本枯燥的教科書,更像是一位經驗豐富的經濟學傢在給你沏茶,慢慢道來那些看似冰冷數據下湧動的經濟脈搏。我對其中關於‘領先、同步、滯後’指標分類的描述印象深刻,它提供瞭一個清晰的思考框架,讓我能更好地理解不同數據點在時間軸上的相對位置和意義。整體而言,這本書的開篇導讀部分,成功地激發瞭我深入探索經濟指標世界的強烈願望,它的敘事節奏把握得恰到好處,既有學術的嚴謹性,又不失大眾閱讀的親和力。

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The best book for getting started with U.S. economic indicators.

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作為資料書而言還不錯。

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看瞭一大半吧,有點膩瞭,如果不是宏觀經濟研究員用不上暫時,留個印象備查即可

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作為資料書而言還不錯。

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經濟指標力薦

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