Ahead of the Curve pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2025

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Joseph H. Ellis

Harvard Business Press

2005-10-11

276

USD 29.95

Hardcover

9781591396918

图书标签: 金融商业 finance 经济学证券美国经济 economics

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发表于2025-02-05

Ahead of the Curve epub 下载 mobi 下载 pdf 下载 txt 电子书下载 2025

Ahead of the Curve pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2025

图书描述

How to Read the Signs of Economic Change-Before They Impact Your Business and Investments Economic and stock-market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a thirty-five-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method that will help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve , Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book will help readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see-and win a sizeable competitive advantage.

Ahead of the Curve 下载 mobi epub pdf txt 电子书

著者简介

"约瑟夫·埃利斯

Joseph H. Ellis

高盛集团合伙人。1970～1994年，埃利斯专职从事零售业的分析，关注整个行业的发展趋势及一些公司的业绩表现，工作的最终目标是向高盛集团的客户提供整个零售业以及零售企业股票，如沃尔玛、联邦百货、Gap等的投资前景等相关建议。

埃利斯的从业经验已达35年，并连续18年被《机构投资者》（Institutional Investor）杂志评为华尔街第一零售业分析师。"

图书目录

Ahead of the Curve pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载

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用户评价

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Yes it is the RATE OF CHANGE which matters.

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Worth reading it if you r interested in business world

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consumer spending index.

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Worth reading it if you r interested in business world

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consumer spending index.

读后感

评分☆☆☆☆☆

江山/文在收到《我在高盛的经济预测法》一书之前，江山在周末的时候去了一家还算喜欢的书店闲逛，看到了好几本带有“高盛”名样的书。后来详查，原来是一家国际领先的投资银行和证券公司，拥有丰富的地区市场知识和国际运作能力。虽然喜欢经济类的东西却不曾深入的了解，直到...

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刚拿到这本书，基本上是奔着高盛的噱头去看的。 1.但是发现整本书描述的主线基本就是一个内容，消费收入领先消费支出，消费支出领先资本支出（工业生产），然后就是一个有一个的重复的解释和图表性的描述。 2.另外作者一直倡导用年比的方法来避免季节性波动的处理，也都是妇孺...

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还不错。当然书中的每一个观点不可能对每个人都有用。个人觉得看书就是看想法，能让你比别人多想到一些，早想到一些，就是好书。推荐这本书。高盛具体什么样我不知道，只是知道这本书能对我有用就够了，呵呵。一家之言，还请海涵。

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利用增长率序列比较得出美国等发达国家的股市领先指标是实际消费支出，而实际资本支出及就业是滞后指标。在萨缪尔森（1939）的经典模型中也是这样思路： 1）y(t)=c(t)+i(t) 2) c(t)=Ay(t-1)+E(ct) 0<A<1 3) i(t)=B(c(t)-c(t-1))+E(it) B>0 差分方程中y(t)代表实际GDP，c(t...

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Ahead of the Curve pdf epub mobi txt 电子书下载 2025